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The US envoys, Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, return to base after traveling between Moscow and Kiev, ready to report to Donald Trump on the meetings with Vladimir Putin and Volodymyr Zelensky. A report on a very difficult mission, punctuated by the red lines of the two warring leaders, which leaves glimpses of glimmers of hope in the American reconstruction: «Substantial progress has been made, including progress in planning further trilateral talks», announced Witkoff.
Trump himself, who would be ready to telephone directly to the leaders of Kiev and the Kremlin, has in the meantime spoken to British Prime Minister Andy Burnham, agreeing, according to what was leaked from London, on “a common commitment to the ceasefire in Ukraine”.
The opening reported by the Elysée
Even if the issues to be resolved always remain the same, starting from the territories, something seems to be moving behind the scenes. The American negotiators have in fact reported to Ukraine a “renewed” Russian willingness to negotiate after the elections for the Duma, scheduled for September 18 to 20, an Elysée source said. France, as well as Great Britain and Germany, participated in one of the rounds of talks that took place in Kiev, confirming Europe’s desire to continue supporting Ukraine and be part of the peace process.
Moscow’s alleged openness behind the scenes is accompanied by a much more balanced public comment: Witkoff and Kushner’s mission was a “small step towards peace”, said Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov. With a struggling economy, Russia may be poised to seize on Trump’s push to resolve the conflict.
Trump’s calculation and Zelensky’s
For the American president, breaking the stalemate and relaunching dialogue before the mid-term elections would be a success to be claimed before American voters, who are increasingly skeptical about his Art of the Deal which he boasted of solving eight wars. The acceleration is also welcome for Zelensky: the Ukrainian president fears a new cold winter under the bombs and is aware of the shortage of weapons that can be delivered to him to continue to defend himself and respond to Russian attacks.
The United States is evaluating whether Russia and Ukraine can take steps to reduce the intensity of the conflict during the winter, Zelensky explained in an interview with Axios without going into details. The Ukrainian president believes that the weeks between October and November are a window of opportunity for diplomacy, and he intends to exploit them. Zelensky will participate in the UN general assembly, which could be the scene for further negotiations between Kiev and Washington.
While saying he is skeptical about Putin’s intentions to negotiate, the leader of Kiev is equally convinced that the Russian president “needs Trump and doesn’t want to make him angry”. According to Zelensky, the Kremlin leader wants to give Trump a diplomatic victory before the November midterm vote, and this increases American leverage to put pressure on Putin for a winter de-escalation. However, the Ukrainian leader is not optimistic and believes that the Russian leader will try to use the winter months to bend Ukraine and weaken it at the negotiating table. The recent Russian attacks, Zelensky fears, do not reveal a great desire for peace on Putin’s part.
The front with Europe
The Kremlin’s tone also remains high towards Europe. Calling the deployment of new missile and artillery systems in Norway a “threat”, Russia announced that it will take “further measures to ensure its security”.
However, measures against Germany have already been taken: Moscow has decided to close the German consulate in St. Petersburg in response to the same measure decreed by Berlin for the Russian one in Bonn, after the discovery of a drone loaded with explosives in Leipzig airport, for which the Germans accuse Russia.