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The 2027 elections will define the Europe to come. The refrain in Brussels is repeated both by sovereignists, who know they have several chances of victory, and by pro-Europeans, who know they have little time and few cards to change things. In a year’s time, essentially, the balances in the EU Council, where dossiers are decided and where the population also weighs in the qualified majority vote, and in the European Council, where the leaders decide the political direction, could be completely different from how we know them today.
The first electoral appointments
The four most populous EU countries after Germany will go to the vote in 2027, namely France, Italy, Spain and Poland. But first, in the next few weeks, elections will take place in Sweden. The Social Democrats are ahead in the polls and the leader Magdalena Andersson could oust the popular Ulf Kristersson, who had governed with the external support of the nationalist Swedish Democrats (ECR), but the game is still on.
On September 20th we will see whether the rise of the AfD in Germany will be confirmed in the regional elections in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, where the hold of the SPD is at stake, and in Berlin, where the CDU-SPD coalition and the sustainability of the cordon sanitaire against the AfD will be tested.
On October 25th it will be the turn of Bulgaria, grappling with long-standing political instability, which will have to choose a new president. It will be a test of the new balance created by the parliamentary victory of Rumen Radev, who brought Sofia closer to Moscow’s positions, stopping military aid to Kiev and opposing new European sanctions against Russia.
All eyes on the Elysée
France is the central passage. Marine Le Pen, who prevailed over the young Jordan Bardella, will be the candidate of the Rassemblement National. Even a victory in the run-off for the far-left candidate Jean-Luc Mélenchon would open a new phase, especially in relations with NATO and the EU itself.
The Iberian fort
Spain will have to renew its Parliament by August 22nd. The reference leader of the European socialists, Pedro Sánchez, could face a bad defeat and give way to an unprecedented possible majority of the People’s Party of the PP with the sovereignists of Vox (Patriots). In this case the socialist axis would move to the pragmatic line of the Danish Mette Frederiksen and, in the event of her victory, of the Swedish Magdalena Andersson.
The Polish unknown
Warsaw will go to the vote between October and November. Donald Tusk’s pro-European coalition will have to face the PiS (Ecr) and a growing radical right, which however arrives at the vote divided into at least four blocks: the PiS, moved to increasingly radical positions, the new project of former prime minister Mateusz Morawiecki, and the extremists of Konfederacja and the Confederation of the Polish Crown.
Italy
The natural deadline of the legislature is October 2027, but the country could go to the polls with early voting if Giorgia Meloni’s majority decides to pull the plug. Italy, which already has two sovereignist forces in government, the League and the Brothers of Italy, will instead have to compete with the challenge of Futuro Nazionale (Esn).
France and Spain more than any other will instead say whether here too, after Italy, popular and conservatives can build national majorities with the radical right. All games which, at a European level, can redefine not only the balance of power within the European Parliament, but also the entire line of European foreign, climate and industrial policy, as well as the stability of the European project itself.