Pensions could increase more in 2027 than assumed just a few weeks ago. What is changing the scenario is the acceleration of inflation: according to preliminary estimates released by Istat on 30 September 2026, in September the consumer price index grew by 4.2% on an annual basis, while inflation acquired for the whole of 2026 rose to 3.1%.
It is the price trend over the course of the year that determines the equalization of pensions, i.e. the mechanism through which allowances are adjusted to the cost of living. The percentage to be applied from 1 January 2027, however, has not yet been established: it will come with the appropriate provisions, based on Istat data.
Pensions 2027, the estimate rises from 2.9 to 3.1%
At the beginning of September the first simulations were carried out taking as a reference an acquired inflation of 2.9%, that recorded in August. With that percentage, the cost of pension revaluation was estimated at around 10 billion euros, before tax returns.
However, the picture changed rapidly. The preliminary data for September brings inflation acquired for 2026 to 3.1%, two tenths more than the previous estimate.
It does not automatically mean that pensions will increase by 3.1%: acquired inflation in fact represents the average change that would occur over the entire year if the price index remained unchanged at the levels achieved in the following months. Data from October, November and December can therefore still change the result.
How much pensions could increase in 2027
If, purely by way of simulation, the revaluation was equal to 3.1% and the current system were not changed, a gross pension of 1,000 euros per month would rise by approximately 31 euros, reaching 1,031 euros. A check for 1,500 euros would increase by approximately 46.50 euros, to 1,546.50 euros, and one for 2,000 euros would increase by approximately 62 euros, to 2,062 euros. For a pension of around 2,400 euros the increase would be close to 74 euros per month.
These are gross and purely indicative amounts, calculated by applying 3.1% to the checks. The increase actually received will depend on the official revaluation percentage, the rules that will be in force in 2027 and the individual tax treatment.
How revaluation works for higher allowances
In 2026 the equalization will be applied in full to pensions up to four times the minimum payment, while on higher amounts the percentage is reduced. The minimum INPS payment for 2026 is equal to 611.85 euros per month: the full revaluation therefore affects, with the current rules, the part of the allowance up to approximately 2,447 euros per month.
The mechanism provides for 100% of the revaluation up to four times the minimum, 90% on the part between four and five times the minimum and 75% on the part greater than five times the minimum. The revaluation operates in stages: even those who receive a higher pension therefore receive the full adjustment on the first part of the allowance.
If this system were confirmed in 2027 and the rate was truly 3.1%, a gross pension of 3,000 euros would have an indicative increase of around 91 euros per month, while for a check of 4,000 euros the increase would be in the order of 115 euros gross per month. These calculations are also simulations and do not represent already approved amounts.
Minimum pensions, how much they could go up
In 2026 the minimum INPS payment was set at 611.85 euros per month, after the provisional revaluation of 1.4% applied from 1 January. Applying a 3.1% increase by simple simulation, the basic value would go to approximately 630.82 euros per month.
Also in this case it is not the amount already established for 2027. Specific increases decided by the Budget law may also apply to minimum pensions, which must be kept distinct from the normal equalization linked to inflation.
Because inflation has increased
According to Istat, Italian inflation accelerated from 3.3 to 4.2% on an annual basis in September. The prices of energy products had an impact above all: the regulated ones went from an increase of 18.6% to 25.9%, the unregulated ones from 17 to 22.2%. Unprocessed food is also accelerating, from 3.8 to 5.5%.
Core inflation, excluding energy and fresh food, is much more contained and rose from 1.5 to 1.7% in September.
When will the definitive increase in pensions for 2027 be known?
To know the actual increase, we will have to wait for the definition of the equalization percentage for 2027 and any changes introduced with the Budget law. The definitive Istat data on September prices are expected for 16 October 2026.
For the moment, therefore, 3.1% constitutes an updated estimate and not the definitive revaluation of pensions. The data is nevertheless significant because, if average inflation remained at these levels, the increases in allowances from next January would be higher than those hypothesized on the basis of the 2.9% recorded in August.