Longer times and contents still undefined, with certainties that fade and the knot of the coverage still to be resolved. The maneuver is proceeding at a slow pace and is struggling to take off: the government’s decision to try the European card to provide answers to families in trouble due to the flare-up of inflation, in fact, postpones the arrival in Parliament of the fifth budget law of the Meloni government. While measures that until yesterday seemed to be in pole position, such as the new cut in personal income tax, are losing ground, causing the majority to become agitated.
The Dpb in CDM and the mystery on the agenda
On the day in which the Council of Ministers launches the budget planning document, the framework on which the maneuver will take shape, a certain uncertainty dominates. In the afternoon, Palazzo Chigi releases an agenda which includes not only the Dpb but also “the illustration of the lines” of the manoeuvre. Three quarters of an hour later the agenda is “updated” and the item disappears. Sources at Palazzo Chigi speak of a “mere clerical error”: “after all – it is explained – it was Minister Giorgetti himself who clarified in the Chamber that the approval would take place at a later time”.
Before closing it, in fact, Giancarlo Giorgetti wants to wait for the conclusion of the European procedure on the safeguard clause, to define a maneuver with “defined contours”. And given that the verdict should arrive from the Eurogroup on 9 November, the non-peremptory deadline of 20 October for sending the text to Parliament may not be respected.
Irpef for the middle class frozen, Tajani is blocking
In the meantime, the government has received the green light from Parliament for the public finance planning document and for the almost 29 billion difference in flexibility granted by the EU for energy and defence. But the path towards the maneuver is also becoming more uncertain regarding the measures. What now appeared as a certainty, the extension of the Irpef cut up to 60 thousand euros, is now considered unlikely: the measure, which three days ago the Deputy Minister of Economy Maurizio Leo in front of the Confartigianato audience almost took for granted, is currently frozen, majority sources know.
But the allies don’t all seem to agree. «Absolutely not, we need to proceed with a new cut in Irpef», says Forza Italia leader Antonio Tajani.
Bonuses for the fragile and party requests
Instead of this measure, which would have affected 3.3 million taxpayers, we are now thinking of a bonus for the vulnerable, which would reach a wider audience. The idea, along the lines of a Forza Italia proposal, is to bring forward IRPEF deductions for healthcare expenses to the current year. In the meantime, the Mef intends to confirm the tax relief on contractual increases and the hyper-depreciation, which it aims to strengthen. It is difficult to predict if and how much more will be allocated for healthcare, although for minister Orazio Schillaci the important thing is that the funds are “spent well”.
Work is also being done – Brussels permitting – to extend the flat tax for VAT numbers up to 100 thousand euros: a proposal from the League, which is also pushing for early pensions and a cut in the Rai license fee. For young people, the idea is a flat tax on contractual increases, in addition to FI’s proposal for a no tax area for those under 35. Noi Moderati, which is pushing for measures on long-term rentals, also calls for zero taxes on young people. FdI would like to make the tax relief on fringe benefits structural, while the Azzurri also propose to extend the tax exemption for all first cars, including company ones.
Cover hunting
To make the puzzle more complicated, a difficult hunt for cover: all eyes are on the banks, with Salvini expecting 5 billion and Tajani saying yes to a contribution but without taxing the extra profits; but also on insurance, energy companies, games, cigarettes and Pnrr savings. On the technical tables we are thinking about coverage to be found for around 8 billion, which, added to the 14.4 billion of flexibility, would lead to a maneuver worth just over 22 billion.
Squaring the circle is not easy, in a situation that remains anything but favourable. «There are big clouds on the horizon», admits Giorgetti, who «before going out to sea» ensures the route he has taken in recent years: along the line of «prudence» and «rigor», respecting the path of «consolidation» of the accounts.
The half-empty Chamber and the attack of the opposition
The minister’s speech on the public finance policy document took place in an almost empty Chamber of the Chamber. When the owner of Via XX Settembre finished speaking, there were six deputies present on the majority benches, approximately double on the centre-left benches.
An image taken up by the opposition. «After four years in Palazzo Chigi, the government has not resolved the economic emergencies of businesses, families and workers. With his report on the DPFP, Giorgetti certifies the country’s difficulties without indicating a strategy to relaunch growth. The majority leaves him alone, while they continue to argue about the budget law. An almost empty chamber and a small number of deputies listening to the Minister of Economy are the plastic image of a government divided and without line”. Thus in a joint note the parliamentary groups of Pd, M5s, Avs, Iv and +Europa in the Chamber.
«But the government’s political failure – continues the note – is incontrovertible in the economic data. Italy is not growing, public debt is increasing and the purchasing power of families has plummeted. Real wages have lost 9.4% since 2021, according to Istat data. Added to this is a fiscal blow of 13 billion euros of increased revenue until 2029, linked to fiscal drag, which affects employees and pensioners. A burden that the government does not want and is unable to sterilize. Faced with an executive that offers no answers to the country’s economic emergencies, the opposition have presented a united resolution with concrete proposals to relaunch growth and build an alternative to the right.”