“The Italian GDP grew in the first quarter of 0.3% compared to the previous period, thanks to the increase in consumption and investments and, to a lesser extent, of the US demand”.
This is what we read in Bankitalia’s economic bulletin according to which “positive signals have emerged for manufacturing activity, which however remains exposed to the instability of the international context”.
For Bankitalia, «In the second quarter the product slowed down. According to our most recent projections, the GDP will grow by 0.6% in the course of 2025 and of about 0.8 in the average of the following two years. The prejudice framework is subject to a significant uncertainty attributable in particular to the evolution of geopolitical and commercial tensions “.
A third of the companies involves impact from duties
About a third of Italian manufacturing companies awaits a negative impact of US duties on their demand and investments in 2025. This is what emerges from the economic bulletin of the Bank of Italy on the basis of the data collected within the survey on inflation and growth expectations according to which in the first half of the year the assessments on foreign demand were still overall positive. In the second quarter, industrial production and the activity in the services have grown slightly. The construction sector has continued to expand, even if more moderately, thanks to the hold of the non -residential sector. Investments also slowed down, affected by the high uncertainty and the low degree of use of the production capacity in the manufacture. “In a context marked by high geopolitical instability and persistent commercial tensions, the perspectives remain uncertain” reads the bulletin.
After the progressive worsening, in 2024, of the judgments on total orders and on those from abroad, manufacturing companies and services reported an improvement in their opinions both in the first and in the second quarter 2025 In the second quarter, the improvement confirmed itself among the companies exposed to the euro area, while the evaluations of companies oriented towards the United States have markedly deteriorated. About 30 percent of manufacturing companies reported a drop in the attributable application – direct or indirectly (through the demand by third countries of third countries included in the global value chains) – to the introduction of duties by the United States. This share is reduced to about 10 percent in the service sector, in which – contrary to the manufacture – the effects would manifest themselves largely indirectly. Just less than half of the companies interviewed in the first quarter provided for an impact against duties on its sales in the USA in the 2025 complex: the percentage was almost 80% among those for which this market represents the main destination of exports. About a fifth of the companies also anticipated a reduction in the fall of the investment plans due to the restrictive commercial policies of the United States. Finally, according to the latest investigation conducted in the months of May and June, about 30% of companies were expected to increase the offer of Chinese products on their sales markets, as an indirect effect of recent international commercial tensions, with a consequent intensification of competition on European markets and a low pressure for their sales price lists.
Uncertainty weighs on families, saving increases
In the first quarter, the expenditure of families in Italy grew to a contained extent. The most recent indicators suggest that consumption has increased at similar rates even in the spring months, driven by the expansion of employment and real wages. “However, consumer trust is affected by the climate of global uncertainty, which maintains the propensity to save high”. In particular, via Nazionale explains that “in a context of high uncertainty about the economic perspectives, the savings rate has climbed on levels higher than the average of last year”. In the first quarter, the expenditure of families climbed by 0.2% in real terms, as in the previous quarter. The growth of consumption has continued to be incurred by spending for services, in particular those relating to transport and conducting the home. After the stagnation of the autumn months, the purchases of assets have decreased for the first time since the end of 2023: the expenditure for durable assets has been strongly contracted, also reflecting a worsening of the evaluation of the general economic situation by families, while the one for the semi -convenience has increased and the expense for non -durable goods has remained stable. The dynamics of consumption has still benefited from the significant increase in wages and the sealing of employment levels. Thanks to the positive contribution of income from work, the income available in the first quarter returned to grow, after stagnation in the autumn months, also in real terms. In a context of high uncertainty on economic prospects, the savings rate went back to levels higher than the average of last year.