The agreement is close, not very close. And in the case of “No Deal” a real commercial war will start between the two banks of the Atlantic. Europe and the United States approach a point of no return to the negotiation on the duties.
On Donald Trump’s table in the next few hours it should end An agreement scheme that provides for a single rate of 15% as a base, with different mutual exemptions to develop. It is a step forward outlined in the wake of the agreement between the USA and Japan, which the Commission illustrated to the permanent representatives of the 27, receiving a substantial consent of principle. But everything can change at any moment. Above all, as diplomatic sources explain, “the final decision is up to Trump”.
The pivot of the draft intended is that 15% which, among the 27 EU countries, is considered substantially acceptable. Also because it would produce an automatic lowering of current rates on some key sectors, such as that of the automotive, now burdened by a rate of 27.5%. The EU, in return, could accept the recognition of some American technical standards in the sector. The percentage of 15% would be counted by including the so-called clause of the ‘most favza nation’ (MFN), used by the EU and uses as an anti-discrimination tool in trade and which has so far led to mutual average rates of 4.8%. On the exemptions the negotiation is open and the attention of the 27 capital is very high.
Among the sectors, according to European sources, the aeronautics, agricultural products, alcohol, timber and medical devices could be saved. It is not clear whether, accompanying the cessation and following the Japanese model, from Brussels there is a clear commitment on industrial investments overseas. Instead, it is clear, explain Brussellese sources, that Trump does not intend to lower the rate on the steel, now to 50%. The celery of the celery was the subject of the interview between the EU commissioner to trade Marcos Sefcovic and his American counterpart Howard Lutnick.
The impression is that the European capitals, though they are ready, are ready to accept 15% but little more. And the commission, in the last mile of the negotiation, decided to change the tones, forcing them significantly. It is no coincidence that Palazzo Berlaymont has decided to combine the two lists of counter -forests so far put on the field: the first, as a response to the American rates on steel and aluminum, from 21 billion; The second, developed after the Liberation Day, 72 billion. In the next few hours, the Commercial Barriers Committee will approve the Single List, which will not come into force until August 7th. However, the EU’s change of pace is determined, however, another factor: the emergence of “a large qualified majority” among the 27 on the activation of the anti-coercion instrument, the so-called “bazooka”. In the course of Coreper II, France asked for the immediate institution of the instrument, on which Italy traditionally recalled caution.
Paris request did not follow but among the 27 the line prevailed according to which, in case of no deal and with the duties therefore at 30%, the bazooka will be activated.
Through the tool, the EU could authorize measures such as duties, restrictions on investments and services, exclusion from public contracts and even the revocation of intellectual property rights. In fact, it would enter a commercial war with the USA. Another node is that of Big Tech and respect, by the US multinationals, the Digital Service Act and the Digital Market Act. Not surprisingly, in a post, the American State Department has defined regulation of social media and other online platforms in the EU as a “orwellian” censorship. The draft of the cemetery is there, the agreement not yet. In the next few hours, a phone call between Ursula von der Leyen and Trump is not expected, except for surprises.
The president of the Commission, together with Antonio Costa and Kaja Kallas, has meanwhile launched “The alliance for competitiveness” with Japan, making axis with Tokyo for a WTO reform. But the highlight of the mission of the EU leaders in the Far East is China, where von der Leyen and Costa are expected by a very difficult summit with XI Jinping.