The text of the cessation, born among the dunes of the Turnberry golf course, is still there: unfinished, resting on the desks of the negotiators, suspended between contradictory versions and compromises to be defined. But the gong is about to play and Europe relies on the handshake between Ursula von der Leyen and Donald Trump, trusting that at the stroke of August the White House translates the political agreement into concrete acts: executive decrees with a basic rate of 15% on most products.
Including, for now, wine and liqueurs. If this were not the case, the spectrum of duties at 30% would return to become concrete, next to the rates already put black on white by the tycoon for all those countries that will not have signed an agreement by August 1st. Only few can afford the luxury of a certainty: the United Kingdom, Japan, Vietnam, Philippines, Indonesia and, lastly, South Korea, Cambodia and Thailand.
All anchored to their bilateral agreements. For Mexico, however, a extension has arrived: the duties at 25% on Fenanyl and car and 50% on steel, aluminum and copper will still be 90 days. An announcement marked by the economic refrain of The Donald: “The duties make America again great and rich”. In Brussels you work relentlessly to close a joint declaration – a non -binding roadmap, also linked to EU investments of 1.3 billion dollars promised on energy and industry – which gives legal value to the pact. But the knots still to be dissolved are numerous. The 15% rate will also hit the Made icons in Europe at least in a first phase such as wine, champagne, whiskey and liqueurs. For now, there are no exemptions, even if the European Commission – driven by the push of Italy and France on the agri -food – is said to be “determined” in wanting to tear “the maximum possible number of derogations”.
The steel and aluminum remain nailed to the heaviest dark of 50%, waiting for a system of shares on which, however, the positions between the two banks of the Atlantic continue to diverge. And the fate of strategic sectors – microchips and drug drugs – is remitted to US measures. The only certainty, highlighted by the US secretary for trade, Howard Lutnick, is that “there will still be a lot to negotiate”.
Including the digital front, the ground of an increasingly hard clash. To soften the tycoon, before the Scottish meeting Brussels she set aside – even without admitting it openly – the hypothesis of a taxation for the big tech, from the web tax to fair share. The idea of a mandatory contribution to the major stars and stripes for the use of European networks “is not a practicable solution”, admitted a spokesperson, referring to the conclusions of the White Paper of February 2024, in fact confirming what was affirmed by Washington who, in the information note on the agreement on the duties, has made official the renunciation of Brussels to tax the digital services. Although, it was the EU clarification, the choice “does not only concern US companies” and regulatory sovereignty in the sector remains a red line.
Waiting for diplomacy to bring its fruits, Palazzo Berlaymont is preparing to freeze – from 4 August and for six months – the EU counter -Dazi on the US assets for a total value of 93 billion euros. “If everything proceeds according to the plans, we will suspend the duties again,” confirmed the EU executive, letting caution transpare in the face of a political climate that is anything but lying, marked by the strong discontent of the French president Emmanuel Macron, according to which “with America it did not end here”.
Targeted by the criticisms of the twenty -seven – including compatriot Friedrich Merz – for Ursula von der Leyen the summer is announced far from a respite. In September, the president will be called to account in front of the European Parliament, where – even in the absence of a formal vote on the agreement – the opposition has already returned to be felt. The charging is led this time the French radical left: the delegation of France Insoumise has launched an appeal to the progressive forces to sign a new motion of censorship against the European executive, accused of having folded Brussels to the will of Trump. For the German it would be the second in a few months.