La Chutè: the fall, more than announced. The French national assembly voted for a large majority Francois Bayrou. The No were 364, 34 more than the total deputies of the oppositions, and 194 i Yes. The Bayrou experience therefore closes after only nine months, with the first crisis caused by a vote of trust asked by the premier in charge and not by the opposition. And a period of great political uncertainty in France opens again.
The three scenarios after the vote
Bayrou will go to the Elysée tomorrow to put his mandate back into the hands of President Emmanuel Macron. Three possible scenarios: a new government, the dissolution of the chambers, the resignation of Macron himself.
The most probable at the moment is that the president entrusts the assignment to a new prime minister, who passes the balance sheet – and avert the risk of an attack de Mercati – And keep at least until the next presidential presidential presidential presidential presidential presidential hits on paper that the choice liked the socialists. But it is unlikely that the name comes out of the rows of the PS that would not have the numbers and different political forces have made it clear even today.
Advance elections hypothesis
Second hypothesis, which goes back to the elections again. Marine Le Pen asked for her loudly today: “They are an obligation, not an option,” he said. Theoretically it should only be reached if any attempt to put a bankruptcy majority to put up. The precedent of the sudden elections of 2024 did not bring well. And the result could be even worse than a year ago for Macron, with an even more fragmented parliament and an even stronger Rassemblement National.
Resignation of the President?
Finally, the scenario of the president’s resignation, invoked by France Insoumise. But for many observers, the president will try to resist the last and he himself has already excluded it. But according to a recent survey Odoxa-backnone64% of the French would like him out of the Elysée.
For the gambler that Macron has already shown that he is, however, the early vote could represent a temptation. He would not have the opportunity to recur, but he could deploy one of his aiming that the Pen is out of the game for the April sentence. Just today the Court of Appeal set the dates of the trial: from 13 January to 12 February. Until then he will not be able to take the field but if the first instance sentence should be reversed, he will be able to run in 2027 and many think that this time he will make it.
The Macron line
So far Macron has kept away from the political bagarre and to encourage the ministers to remain united and fight, he does not seem to have spent much to save Bayrou. The president could speak to the French tomorrow evening, at 8pm.
Quick and previous times
He made his Macron say that he wants a solution quickly. He also said it last year when he dissolved the rooms and summoned early elections; For France, the longest period of the fifth republic without government in the middle of its powers opened up.
Fitch markets and rating
This time, however, the eyes of the markets are focused on Paris and on Friday the Fitch Agency should announce its new French sovereign debt rating. In March he warned that he would downgraded him if a “credible plan” had not been implemented to reduce him to the medium term. And the 44 billion cut proposed by Bayrou fell with him today.
Sources of the Elysée have ensured that the head of state is working in search of a name on which the votes of a solid majority can converge: “its priority is the stability of the country”.
Possible candidates
Among the possible candidates, the Minister of Defense Sebastien Lecornu, of the economy Eric Lombard, Justice Gerald Dermanin and Health Catherine Vautrin.
The vessels of France Insoumise
Quotes have already arrived. France Insoumise (LFI) of Jean-Luc Melenchonwho with the socialists had presented himself in 2024 under the umbrella of the new popular front, put his hands forward against what he calls a “socialist scam” and rejected a possible coalition “of all and of anyone”. LFI announced a parliamentary motion to ask for the dismissal of Macron and early elections.