The duties and uncertainty will cause less growth of -0.3%of the Italian GDP in 2025-2026, due to a lower dynamic of the exports of goods (-1.2%) and investments in machinery (-0.4%). It is possible to avoid a EU tariff retaliation on purchases from the USA, which would impact on the prices and trust of families and businesses, with a further braking of the GDP. Crucial, however, conclude new EU commercial agreements with other important economic partners (Mercosur, India).
The Confindustria Study Center in the Flash situation in April estimates this. The United States are the first non-EU destination of Italian goods, services and ideas. They hold the primacy both as the location of industrial companies controlled by the Italian ones, and as a country of origin of multinationals in Italy. The manufacturing generates almost all Italian exports in the USA, equal to more than one tenth of the manufacturing sales abroad (10.8%). According to the CSC estimates, sales in the USA activate, directly and indirectly, almost 7% of the Italian manufacturing production (about 90 billion euros). The most exposed sectors are pharmaceutical, motor vehicles, machinery, Confindustria continues. A high global uncertainty of economic policy (+80% in 2025 on 2024) brakes the business and investment of companies abroad. Less expectations of global demand are also incorporated into the recent drop in the Commodity prices, the Confindustria Study Center still reports, according to which world trade is expected to stagnate in the two-year period 2025-2026 (-2.0/2.5 percentage points compared to spring forecasts), in the absence of further negative spirals on international financial markets. Furthermore, the substantial disqualification between the greatest global importer (in the USA 13.1% of the world imports in 2023) and the first exporter (from China 14.2% of exports) will determine a profound recomposition of the global supply chains, with a loss of efficiency and greater production costs.