The 10% duties imposed by the Trump Administration on most of the products that the United States import from the rest of the world: a shock for global trade that will be intensified in the next few days, entered into force at 0:01 on Saturday (6:01 in Italy) in Italy). This 10%universal minimum threshold, from which certain products are exempt, is added to the existing duties.
Fitch confirmed the BBB rating with a positive outlook for Italy
“Italy’s rating – writes the agency – is supported by its wide, diversified and high added value economy, by belonging to the Eurozone and solid institutions compared to the median of the BBBï category. These strengths are balanced by weak macroeconomic and tax fundamental, in particular a very high public debt and a still low growth potential. The positive prospects reflect tax and financial risks From exceptionally high levels of debt thanks to better political stability and tax management.
“Slowdown in sight because of the US duties”
Fitch provides “a slowdown in the Italian economy due to the worsening of the external context, which reflects the rapid evolution of US duties. With 9-10% of its exports to the United States”, reads a note.
“Italy is one of the EU countries most exposed to the changes of US commercial policies. However, the structure of its exports leads us to believe that it could be more resilient to duties compared to other EU members, since it includes a large share of products with long -term delivery contracts and produced with a low price elasticity “, writes the agency.
“Fitch growth forecasts focused on a growing GDP of 0.5% in 2025 and 0.8% in 2026after a growth of 0.7% in 2024 but, explains the rating agency, “took into account 15% duties on exports to the United States and 7.5% on imports from the United States. The announcement of this week of duties of 20% on the EU represents a reduction risk for these forecasts, but the final impact will depend on various factors, including the negotiations and the EU response”.
As for the defensenotes Fitch, “Italy’s expenditure was modest, equal to 1.5% of GDP in 2024. Italy has to face even greater pressure from NATO allies to increase it. We expect that the defense expenditure can reach 2% of GDP within the forecast, facilitated by the reclassification of existing expenditure or by further tax consolidation. However, we do not foresee an additional expenditure for defense that increases national debt. This projection underlines the government’s commitment to tax prudence and highlights the limited parliamentary support for the increase in defense expenses “.