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The September heat will continue for a few more days in Messina and Sicily, but the most evident change is expected over the weekend. High pressure keeps temperatures above seasonal averages on the island, with peaks of up to 34-35 degrees in inland areas. In the Messina area the weather remains mostly stable, with only a temporary increase in cloud cover in the afternoon hours.
In Messina, temperatures will remain at fully summery values for most of the week, without a sudden drop from one day to the next. The available calculations still show values around 30 degrees until the final part of the week. It is more correct to talk about a gradual attenuation of the heat than about a sudden change between Thursday and Friday.
The change starts mid-week
The national meteorological picture will begin to change from Wednesday 9 September, when a vortex coming from France will favor rain and thunderstorms in Italy. The worsening will then tend to move towards the Centre-South, where the more breathable climate is expected by Friday the 11th.
In Sicily the most evident thermal effects should appear later, with the reduction of high pressure and temperatures progressively closer to the averages of the period. In Messina, therefore, the change in circulation will only become perceptible at the weekend.
The sharpest drop between Saturday and Sunday
It is above all the weekend of 12 and 13 September that represents, at present, the most significant transition. A generalized drop in temperatures is expected for the weekend, with highs below 30 degrees in the main Italian cities and a phase of greater instability in the Centre-South.
For Messina the models currently indicate maximums around 26-27 degrees on Saturday and 25 degrees on Sunday: a drop of four or five degrees compared to the values of the working week. The signal to follow is therefore not the difference of one or two degrees between Thursday and Friday, but the transition towards significantly lower temperatures over the weekend.
Lower Tyrrhenian Sea under observation
However, the change could be accompanied by a more unstable phase. Forecasts indicate that over the weekend the lower Tyrrhenian Sea will be one of the areas to be monitored most carefully: a sector that includes the Tyrrhenian coast of Messina and the Strait area. Sea surface temperatures are still close to 30 degrees and this can provide energy to storm phenomena, increasing the risk of locally intense showers.
At this temporal distance, however, it is still a trend, which will be updated with the forecasts for the next few days and with any criticality bulletins from the regional civil protection.