Six million and one hundred thousand people will leave the work in Italy in the next ten years and there are no enough young people to replace them. The inapp – National Institute for the analysis of public policies – speaks of “generational exodus” to describe the retirement of the baby boomers, which risks pressing the welfare system. The alarm was launched by the president Natale Forlani in an audition to the parliamentary commission of inquiry on the economic and social effects of the demographic transition.
The Italian population of work will collapse by more than a third by 2060, with “inevitable consequences” on economic growth, welfare and sustainability of public spending, if you do not intervene immediately. The effects of the exodus are already visible: companies denounce difficulty finding staff, the pension expenditure is intended to rise up to 17% of GDP by 2040 and over 4 million over 65 non self -sufficient they need continuous assistance, but only 7.6% are welcomed in the RSA.
Faced with a phenomenon of this reach, lengthen the retirement age, limiting the forms of early retirement and gradually raising the requirements, “is not decisive”, warns Forlani, which indicates two priorities: regenerating the active population – bringing women, young people, still active and regular immigrants to the labor market – and make social spending sustainable. The indication is to differentiate policies for the third age, distinguishing between active elderly and non self -sufficient, strengthening proximity services and reforming assistance.
The theme of care, in a broad sense, represents for Forlani a crucial junction: it serves to respond to the growing needs of a population who ages, but also to generate new opportunities for economic and employment development. Fundamental also “genre policies” to free the potential of female employment. There are 7.8 million women between 15 and 64 years outside the labor market and, among these, over 1.2 million say they want to work, especially in South regions such as Campania and Sicily, where more than 23% of the inactive is available.
To reduce discouragement factors, it is necessary to intervene on the issue of care: 80% of women who do not work or seek employment, in the central age groups, cites family reasons. The mothers show the greater willingness to adapt to the works offered. And about half are the women who would also accept a job with wages lower than 1,000 euros net per month.