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When it became clear to the Iranians that the Pentagon was seriously considering going and taking the enriched uranium by force, the countermeasure was drastic and – almost literally – fatal. They swallowed the key. They collapsed the tunnels where the nuclear material had been hidden for months, CNN revealed this morning, and what’s more they mined the entrances.
Now recovering it would be difficult even for them, let alone for an armed blitz, at night, with time pressed and under enemy fire. And now that the negotiations are tight and the uranium issue is more central than ever, having the precious material under tons of earth is to the advantage of the Pasdaran regime.
The “Iranian compromise” in the ceasefire negotiations
The most obvious consequence is that the USA, having taken note of the situation, would have ended up accepting the “Iranian compromise” in the memorandum of understanding for the ceasefire: the uranium no longer taken away by the Americans, as the hawks in Washington wanted, but diluted on site under the watchful eye of UN inspectors. “It has always been our position,” Tehran Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi recalled yesterday.
Now to remove it, complex machinery and long, delicate demining sessions will be needed. Time, in a word, a resource that in war can be worth more than missiles. Provided that in the end we succeed, because there are even those who hypothesize that at a certain point the Iranians could even declare – no one knows how credibly – that that uranium is completely unattainable, leaving Washington and its allies with a radioactive sword of Damocles over their heads.
Half a ton of uranium and the nuclear risk
The “sword” weighs 970 pounds, approximately 440 kilos, and is currently in a gaseous state (uranium hexafluoride). To enrich the material, the scientists of the Islamic Republic used the powerful centrifuges of the Natanz, Fordow and Isfahan plants. At the moment it would be 60%, but in a few days and with efficient laboratories it could reach 90%, i.e. the share suitable for manufacturing bombs.
With half a ton of uranium, ten could be obtained, according to experts, and no one in the region wants an Iran equipped with nuclear bombs. The Israelis less than all the others: «As long as I am prime minister, Iran will not have nuclear power. We agree with Trump,” said Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. But now the picture is objectively more difficult than a month ago, and the window for a raid has definitively closed.
The failed raid and Trump’s caution
The military option certainly existed, and further confirmation came today from CNN. The US newspaper writes that on May 19 the head of the US Armed Forces, General Dan Caine, hastily left a NATO summit in Brussels to reach a briefing in Tampa, Florida, at the headquarters of the Central Command, where the operational plans for the raid were waiting for him on the table.
An operation with risk classified “from high to extreme”, that is, with several American victims even in the event of success, and with the concrete possibility that Tehran could play in retaliation the last card left in its pocket so far: the blockade of Bab al-Mandab at the hands of the Yemeni Houthis. It would have been Donald Trump himself who blocked everything, in a fit of caution.