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The US and Iran are relaunching the tug-of-war over control of Hormuz, as the 60-day truce signed in June with the Islamabad memorandum expires.
President Donald Trump surprisingly announced on Friday that he would designate the narrow US territory “very soon”, with Tehran defeated. While the status of the strategic hub through which one fifth of the world’s oil and gas passes remains in a situation of total military and diplomatic stalemate. Iran responded quickly, calling the US president’s threats and announcements “out of place” and “absurdity”. Kazem Gharibabadi, deputy foreign minister, quipped: “The Strait of Hormuz cannot be conquered with a tweet, nor with an aircraft carrier, nor with an order, nor with an electoral speech: it was, is and will remain Iranian.” The strait “will be closed and reopened only at Iran’s command, and until you accept the reality of defeat Iran will continue to impose the blockade,” he added.
Meanwhile, the commander of Tehran’s army, Amir Hatami, has announced that he has placed a bounty on American soldiers defined as “aggressors”, setting a reward of 30,000 dollars to be paid to anyone who captures or kills one. A move that further distances the possibility of resuming dialogue. Furthermore, the positions in the field see Tehran blocking the passage of Hormuz to use it as an instrument of destruction of the global economy and to put pressure on the USA, while Washington maintains a military naval blockade against Iranian ports with the aim of strangling the country’s economy. Furthermore, the Iranian Parliament is preparing to vote on a bill that contains measures to “ensure lasting security and the development of the Strait of Hormuz and the Persian Gulf”, as well as another provision on “countering foreign interference”. The latter, in particular, provides for a ban on transit “to any vessel transporting equipment and cargo owned by the USA, Israel and countries hostile to Iran”. This week, however, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent will announce a series of “never before seen” economic measures against Iran, sufficient – he explained – to isolate the country from the rest of the world. In this scenario, Monday 17 June is the date on which the fragile 60-day truce decided in Islamabad expires.
A last minute agreement to extend it seems unlikely, even the mediators hope for it and are still working on it. Without an extension, the current stalemate is destined to give way to a phase of total uncertainty. Negotiations are also complicated by fractures within the Iranian state, as demonstrated by the Trump administration’s attempt to establish contact in mid-May directly with the commander of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard, Ahmad Vahidi, through the president of Iraqi Kurdistan Nechirvan Barzani. A senior White House official, quoted by the American media, described the situation between the two countries as static. “It doesn’t matter how close or far we are to the goal – he said – What matters is whether Iran wants to sit at the table and reach an agreement. At the moment, it has not done so”. While the war remains highly unpopular in the United States, where the president and Republicans are struggling to defend control of Congress ahead of November’s midterm elections. Several US outlets have reported that Washington is running out of ammunition, including crucial Patriot anti-missile interceptors. Gasoline prices are over $4 a gallon – a major issue for Americans.