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The United States will not attack Iran before the midterm elections. Speaking of “constructive discussions” in progress, Donald Trump denies the rumors about an imminent attack dictated by the need to curb the cost of energy which is penalizing the Republicans in view of the midterms. However, the hypothesis of an escalation after the vote seems to remain standing, for which the White House has already requested and received plans from the Pentagon should it decide to act. With a post on his social network Truth, the president assured that the USA will not attack before November and also provides “clarity” on situation in Hormuz. “Oil is passing through the Strait in record quantities,” he said, trying to brush aside fears about a blockage of the crucial passage. According to the findings of the analysis company Kpler, however, the number of ships transiting Hormuz has fallen to the lowest level in over two months, with crude oil now passing at a trickle.
Situation in Hormuz far from normal
That the situation in the Strait is far from normal is also evident from the compensation that oil tanker captains receive, paid – according to the Financial Times – 100,000 dollars a month to cross the Strait of Hormuz, plus a bonus of 50,000 dollars for each trip made. Figures that are at the basis of that energy price that Americans complain loudly about and which worries Trump less than a month before the November vote. Precisely to slow down the runaway prices, the president was considering an attack before the elections. According to rumors from The Atlantic and Axios, the president has asked the Pentagon to develop plans that can be implemented shortly, in addition to those already presented to the White House for action after the midterms. An attack before the vote – a Republican source explained to The Atlantic – “would give Trump a victory and allow petrol prices to fall”. However, the hypothesis now seems to have been put aside with Trump’s denial, even if the president repeatedly changed his mind about the raids before the vote. In recent weeks he spoke of a possible escalation after the vote, only to correct himself in the following days and open up to the possibility of attacks before November 3rd because – he explained – preventing Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon is more important than the midterms. But as the vote approaches and the Republicans’ difficulties in the polls, Trump seems to have changed his approach again, even though – according to Channel 12 – IDF Chief of Staff Eyal Zamir spoke two days ago with senior American officials and was informed of the US military’s preparations for the possibility of a large-scale resumption of fighting against Iran in the next three weeks.
The risk of the “lame duck” for the last two years of the mandate
The president is engaged in a tough electoral campaign, with daily rallies, to try to save the fate of the conservatives. If they lost Congress, Trump would find himself a “lame duck” for the last two years of his final term and at risk of impeachment. The president is also aware that Americans have not digested the war in the Middle East and the consequences it is imposing. Conflict is one of the thorniest issues for Republicans, and many conservative candidates are distancing themselves from the conflict sought by a president whose approval ratings are at historic lows. To explain that there will be no attack before the vote, Trump spoke of “constructive discussions” without going into detail. Several times over the last few months he has relaunched the existence of negotiations to avoid an escalation so far. The talks, however, have not borne any fruit so far.