IMF warning: the world economy has held up, but could be at its limit

John

By John

The world economy “has held up despite an exceptional barrage of shocks” in the last seven years culminating with the war in the Middle East: however “this resilience is under strain” and “it could soon be put to the test”. The alarm is found in the introduction to the World Economic Outlook by IMF chief economist Silvana Tenreyro: growth has been supported by “the reorientation of energy supplies” and “the boom in investments for AI”. However, “energy stocks are dwindling” – warns Tenreyro – and “further geopolitical shocks may still have repercussions on prices and interruptions in supplies”. Furthermore, high debt limits fiscal maneuver space, and central banks have their hands tied as they must focus on price stability.