The United States and Israel have developed new plans to attack Iran immediately after the midterm elections.
The details of the new raids are still being worked out, but the targets to be hit have already been identified: from energy infrastructures to nuclear plants, passing through the arsenal of drones. In preparation for the possible short but intense blitz, the American and Israeli armed forces – as reported by the New York Times – have intensified the exercises, flying in the Iraqi skies to simulate the maneuvers to be adopted. Despite having canceled a new attack against Iran several times at the last moment, Trump has never closed the door to a new offensive to strike after November 3.
“I have to decide how to win”, he has been repeating for days, implying that a resumption of hostilities is not ruled out and insisting on the fact that more oil is passing through the Strait of Hormuz than before the war. Several critics fear that the commander-in-chief will authorize an attack especially in the event of a defeat in November, especially if the Democrats win both the House and the Senate. A raid – in their opinion – would allow to shift attention from the burning debacle which would effectively make him a lame duck for the rest of the mandate. And if he decides to act, Trump should do so before the inauguration of the new Congress in January: this is to take advantage of the last months in which the Republicans will have control of Capitol Hill. There is also uncertainty surrounding a possible attack due to the October 27 elections in Israel.
If Netanyhau were to lose, it would be difficult for him to start a war. However, it is not excluded – experts warn – that the prime minister could exploit the prospect of a joint Israeli-American attack to put pressure on his rivals, pushing them to join a government of national unity to manage the conflict, like the one created after the attack on 7 October. Hamas itself apparently let Israel know that it is ready for a new attack like the one in 2023, in a frank and threatening message delivered to the United Nations Humanitarian Coordinator Ramiz Al-Akbarov. According to Ynet, the organization is stockpiling weapons and rebuilding tunnels in Gaza, but intelligence does not believe it has the strength to repeat October 7. Even if Hamas – some Israeli officials explained – seems ready to bet on the fact that Israel does not have the capacity to conduct a large-scale operation between the October 27 vote and the November 3 midterms. There is a lot of skepticism about a resumption of Israeli-American hostilities in Iran. Many argue that it cannot be more successful than the one that began in February, and only a few believe that it will be able to subdue Tehran. The identified targets would certainly represent a great loss for Tehran if hit, but probably not enough for a capitulation. Even hitting Pickaxe Mountain may not resolve the nuclear issue that is so dear to Trump. The greatest risk is that of a widening of the conflict in the Middle East, where tension is already skyrocketing. In fact, the Houthis do not let go of Saudi Arabia and continue to attack its airports. The United States has ordered some of the embassy staff in Riyadh and their families to leave the country. A decisive move while Trump has not yet dissolved his reservations about his possible support for Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman against the Yemeni rebels.