The implementation of differentiated autonomy risks becoming a mockery only for the South. Paradoxically, the North that is loudly calling for it could also be the one to pay the consequences. A simulation by the Observatory on Italian Public Accounts at the Catholic University highlights the risks for the stability of the country. Yes, because each point of GDP retained by the opulent Northern Regions would weigh more than three times more for the “poorer” Southern Regions. The consequences of a similar scenario are easy to imagine: economic and social collapse would be inevitable with disastrous effects on the entire country and in particular on structurally fragile territories such as Calabria.
But that’s not all: if the State – the researchers at Cattolica always point out – were to intervene to rebalance the accounts, it would risk wiping out its primary surplus, a fundamental parameter for compliance with stringent European rules. Currently the economy of the South is worth less than a quarter of the national one. In the North, more taxes are generated than they spend on their own needs. Specifically, the economy of the Center-North is worth 78% of the national GDP, while that of the South is worth 22%. In this situation, each point of Gross Domestic Product retained by the “wealthier” Regions would weigh 3.5 times more for the poorer ones.
Differentiated autonomy, the simulation specifies, could worsen this already precarious balance. The project of the Northern Regions to retain greater wealth in their territories appears “long, bumpy and not at all obvious”, is highlighted in the study. Unless it puts at risk the welfare of the Southern Regions, historically under stress, and the public accounts that have been “sick” for some time.
