«If things proceed in the same direction as in recent weeks, we will ease our restrictive monetary policy in June. Assuming there are no surprises until then, as they say in French, it is a «fait accompli». The vice-president of the ECB said it, Louis de Guindos, in an interview with Le Monde. For what follows, however, the ECB policymaker says he is “very cautious”.
As regards the future, De Guindos specified that the ECB will have to take into account the steps that the United States central bank will take: «The decisions of the Federal Reserve are crucial not only for the United States, but also for the global economy, and this also affects the euro area.”
For investors, two more rate cuts are likely after June, most likely in September and December, but expectations have been reduced in recent weeks due to fears that the Fed itself will delay the cuts, perhaps until next year.