It seems a bit like a game of goose and goose: two steps forward and one step back. In reality, the road to peace in Ukraine is still long and finding a point of balance in the negotiations that is good for everyone is a very complex objective.
The steps forward: concessions from Kiev, US turning point, Europe back in the game
It is undeniable that steps forward that were unthinkable until a few weeks ago have been made: Zelensky is, intelligently, conceding a lot, perhaps a lot, but on some strategic points, such as territories, he cannot take further steps backwards; Trump made the American position more balanced after the highly contested 28-point plan which almost completely embraced the Russian narrative, going as far as granting American participation in security guarantees for Kiev; Europe is back in the game, has carried out a fruitful dialogue with the Americans and is ready to assume its responsibilities on the use of frozen Russian assets and on the future international force to be deployed when some type of peace arrives.
The issues still open: Donbass, NATO and security guarantees
However, squaring the circle is still far away.
Russia says it is ready for peace but there is always a however that holds back the negotiations: Moscow continues to want all of Donbass, it does not want to hear about soldiers from NATO countries on Ukrainian territory and it is very likely that it does not appreciate at all the security guarantees on which the Americans and Europeans are working.
Trump and Putin: different times and conditions difficult to reconcile
Trump’s push for peace clashes with the obstacles that the Russians continue to place in his path.
The American president wants an end to the conflict quickly but Russia’s times are actually very different. Putin is in no hurry and the war on the territory is slowly but surely turning in his favor, at the cost of terrifying losses on both sides.
Ceasefire or “true peace”: what Moscow is really asking for
When the Russians say that they do not want a ceasefire but a real peace, they simply mean that they want all their conditions to be accepted without delay, conditions that Zelensky cannot fully accept.
The Ukrainian president has already renounced entry into NATO in exchange for strong security guarantees similar to Article 5 of the Atlantic Alliance, he has, in fact, accepted that some territories remain in Russian hands (but without formal recognition) by agreeing to the freezing of the current borders on the line of contact. But it cannot also cede the part of Donbass still in Ukrainian hands (while Moscow demands it) because it would be a military, strategic and political defeat.
Zelensky between negotiation and responsibility for failure
Zelensky also knows that he cannot say no to the negotiations carried out by Trump because both the Russians and the Americans would blame him for the failure. Then he continually tries to throw the ball back into the Russian court.
The next US move: Trump will hold the point or go back
Now the American attitude will therefore be fundamental. Trump’s wavering has not helped so far and the tycoon’s tendency to accept Russian positions has often made life difficult for Ukrainians.
Zelensky has basically accepted the lines of the new plan and the US is now waiting for an official and detailed response from Russia. But the current plan is very different, in many parts, from the original 28-point plan and Moscow has already made it known that there are many aspects that are not right.
The key question: what Trump will do now
What will Trump do now? Will he hold the line and defend the new plan born from the talks with the Ukrainians and the Europeans or will he backtrack on the Russian positions again as has happened many times in the past?
Tough negotiations until the end and contradictory signals from the Kremlin
It should also be remembered that this type of negotiations are always particularly tough and that no one withdraws from their positions until the end, in an attempt to gain as many advantages as possible, until the last moment. And it is to be hoped that Trump is right when he says he has the perception that everyone wants peace even if the Kremlin’s precision regarding the fact that there was no phone call between Trump and Putin after the one on October 16 goes in the opposite direction.
The role of Europe: mediations, Russian assets and future peacekeeping force
In this continuously changing situation, the role of Europe is growing and it had the great merit of helping to make the draft peace plan more balanced. The EU is becoming increasingly aware that support for Kiev in the coming months will increasingly weigh on its shoulders from a political, economic and military point of view.
For this reason it must try to find compromises and mediations with respect to the different positions and sensitivities of the 27 on the use of Russian assets and on the deployment of a future peacekeeping force in Ukraine.
The risk of returning to square one
As always, time is short and Europe must quickly choose which path to take, how to do it and who to do it with. In this game of the goose applied to geopolitics we must be very careful not to take steps backwards and never return to the starting point.