The classroom of the Chamber, after the vote this morning in the Senate, approved the majority resolution on the DFP. In the public finance document (ex Def) the government has Dimized estimates on the growth of Italy’s GDP for 2025, bringing them to +0.6% compared to 1.2% indicated in autumn in the structural budget plan, and reduced the forecast for 2026 to +0.8%. Instead, the trajectory of the deficit/GDP ratio has been maintained, which will drop below 3% from 2026 as per commitments made with Brussels, with the braking debt from the following year also for the attenuating of the weight of the superbonus on public accounts.
Forecasts conditioned by the commercial war on the duties
The forecasts of the DFP were conditioned by some variables, by the commercial war launched by the duties imposed by the US to the conflicts on the field in Ukraine and the Middle East, which according to the Minister of Economy Giancarlo Giorgetti make “particularly complex to elaborate estimates” both in the medium and in the short term. The owner of the MEF claims that the prudent management of public finance has allowed “to confirm the objectives of net spending and reduction of the deficit and debt” set in the autumn in the PSB. Last week, in the hearing in the Senate, Giorgetti recalled the commitment for the keeping of public accounts and reiterated that the priority is to manage the debt that “devours any expense, even the most noble”.
For the owner of the MEF, the general framework of public accounts outlined in the DFP “represents a solid basis to deal with new needs, linked to safety and defense as well as to change to the commercial and geopolitical structure”. Challenges, shy, “very complex, that the government intends to face by safeguarding the sustainability of public finance, the purchasing power of families and the competitiveness of businesses”.
Particular attention, the government also intends to turn it “to the health costs for prevention to improve the state of health of the population”. With this objective, the DFP commits the government to “evaluate that they adopt support measures for health prevention to improve the state of health of the population and in particular immunization and screening”, which are to be considered “priority for social and economic resilience”.
In the European Union and in Italy, he notes the DFP, “the reduction of GDP would be gradual but more persistent; After the price effect, which acts immediately, the impact of the lesser global demand to which Europe is more exposed, given the greater opening to foreign trade, takes over “. The other forecast bodies also confirm the government -down estimates and the impact of US tariffs. For Bankitalia in perspective “on the European and Italian economy the effects of the increase in US duties will weigh”. The high quality of the goods we sell in the United States and the large profit margins of some companies will “temporarily attenuate the impact”, but “a repercussions will be inevitable” in the case of “a strong slowdown in world trade”. It could cost 0.2-0.3% of GDP.
For the Confindustria Study Center, however, the relocation of Italian companies in the USA “is a concrete risk”. The UPB regarding the expenses for the defense, notes: «The simulations estimate an increase in the debt of 0.7 percentage points up to 137.3 of GDP in 2028 with a partial use of flexibility; With a gradual increase in expenditure up to “at the maximum allowed equal to 1.5 percent in 2028,” the debt would rise to 137.7 percent “.
Critics the unions on the text. For the CGIL the DFP “certifies – in fact – the failure of the government’s economic policies”. According to the CISL “the forecasts are not reassuring, the GDP will increase by just 0.8% in 2026 and 2027. This trend is confirmed, based on the data currently available, also in 2028”. While for Uil “there are no new economic policies, structural investments are not glimpsed nor a concrete strategy to face the great social transitions”.
The continuous changes of scenario on duties, now suspended for 90 days – until July 9 – have conditioned the macroeconomic projections and the debate on the text between majority and oppositions. Also because the theme of the possible increase in defense expenses in Europe has kept the bench in recent weeks, given the signals launched by the US on a possible downsizing of the military umbrella in favor of Europe.
The government confirmed that it intends to reach the NATO target of 2% of GDP in military spending within the year but also removed the hypothesis of a budget deviation – which should be voted by April 30 – or a request for a derogation from the pact is stability for military spending. The decisions of the next summit born scheduled in June will be expected.
“The deviation must not be the easy solution – said Giorgetti – before predicting additional expenses, also for defense or duties, I want to know where they end”. Words that seem to dispel speculations on a possible corrective maneuver.
The simulation of the treasure contained in the DFP on the weight of the US tariff policies on the economy “highlights a negative impact of duties on global economic growth”, with “more severe effects in 2026 for the United States”. For the document “the joint commercial retaliation of international partners, which reduce exports, add up to the effects determined by the duties imposed which, increasing prices and the level of uncertainty, contribute to the reduction of the growth of internal demand”.
The effects on internal demand, we still read in the text, “tend to attenuate themselves, also because of the response of accommodating monetary policy, so that in the following years there would be a partial recovery of economic activity”.