At the end of 2024, the growth of world trade has undergone a moderation, even if the good performance of the US importsperhaps in the face of the growing uncertainty about future commercial policies, has remained a fundamental decisive of the dynamics of world trade “: the writes ECB in the economic bulletin.
“In the fourth quarter of 2024, the US imports remained a fundamental decisive of the growth of world trade” but, “in perspective”, the situation could change because with “new duties” it would manifest “unfavorable trends”. “The US imports remained vigorous at the end of the year, perhaps in the presence of uncertainties on the commercial policies of the new United States administration”, writes the ECBexplaining that “the incoming port data for Los Angeles and Long Beach indicate a significant increase in the number of loading ships that have entered China in the second half of 2024, compared to the same period of the previous year”.
Overall, the data indicate that in the fourth quarter of 2024 the US imports remained a fundamental decisive of the growth of world trade. But “in perspective, if on the one hand the efforts to anticipate potential commercial restrictions could continue to support the trade at the beginning of the first quarter of 2025, on the other hand they could subsequently manifest unfavorable trends, including new duties and the loss of the observed anticipation of imports “.