“With the Stabilicum today the centre-right could only win if it includes Futuro Nazionale with Vannacci in the coalition, the centre-right would gain an absolute majority in both houses of Parliament. Without it, the majority would go wide.”
This is what emerges from the latest Youtrend simulation, which translated the current balance of power between the political forces into seats in two alternative scenarios: Futuro Nazionale, Roberto Vannacci’s party, inside or outside the centre-right.
“In the most probable outcome today with Futuro Nazionale in coalition – underlines the opinion poll institute – the centre-right would obtain 223 seats out of 400 in the Chamber and 114 out of 205 in the Senate, exceeding the absolute majority threshold in both branches (201 and 103 seats respectively). The wide field would stop at 162 deputies and 80 senators, Action would get 12 deputies and 3 senators, while 3 seats per branch would go to other lists. The 5 senators for life complete the Senate”.
“If Futuro Nazionale ran alone, the picture would be reversed. The broad camp would win 221 seats in the Chamber and 112 in the Senate, thus obtaining an absolute majority in both Chambers. The centre-right would drop to 139 deputies and 70 senators, Futuro Nazionale would obtain 26 in the Chamber and 12 in the Senate, Action 11 and 3, the other lists 3 and 3.
The comparison between the two scenarios shows the weight of the majority bonus envisaged by the Stabilicum. Divided, the center-right and Futuro Nazionale would add 165 deputies and 82 senators: 58 deputies and 32 senators less than they would obtain by running together. A margin that is enough to shift the majority from one coalition to another and which makes Vannacci’s position one of the decisive factors of the next legislature.