Four years ago hackers from several “hostile” countries had fueled controversy on the counting of the ballots, the ratifications of the vote in the various states and on alleged fraud. «This year – according to the Pentagon – partly because they studied the lessons of 2020, Russia, Iran and China appear better prepared to take advantage of similar opportunities during the post-election transition.”
Agents of Russia, Iran and China are working to spread disinformation and fake news about the American elections. Among the operations already intercepted, intelligence sources cite rumors spread by profiles controlled by Russia according to which there will be electoral fraud carried out by immigrants.
In recent weeks, arrest warrants have been issued against Russians linked to the state broadcaster RT, Russia Today, accused of having financed the spread of false news about Harris through right-wing influencers.
But there are other entities in the investigators’ sights. The US State Department has set up a reward of up to $10 million for information on the identity of employees of Rybar, a Russian news site founded by Yevgeny Prigozhin, the late leader of the Wagner Group mercenaries, accused of running campaigns on social media with false profiles.
Among the “fake news” put online by the Kremlin, there is a video of a man who identifies himself as “Matthew Metro”, in which he claims to have been a student of Walz in Minnesota and accuses him of abuse. The clip has been viewed by millions of people on X, the social media platform of Elon Musk, who sided with Trump and gave space to all conspiracy and white supremacist accounts.
Trump is not only the beneficiary of the hacks, but also a target. According to a Microsoft blog, a group of Iranian hackers are monitoring websites related to the American elections. The researchers claim that there are “preparations with the aim of directly influencing electoral operations”. The hackers – called Cotton Sandstorm by Microsoft – are said to be linked to Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard. In May they allegedly hacked into an American information site to understand its level of vulnerability.
Iran had been accused in recent weeks of hacking Trump’s campaign email and trying to contact Harris’ emailto test the willingness to pass on confidential information. The vice president’s staff never responded to the email, and reported the matter to US Intelligence. Now there is this new accusation, to which Tehran has responded harshly. The spokesperson for the Iranian mission to the United Nations called the accusations “unfounded and totally inadmissible”. “Iran – he added – has no reason or intention to interfere with the US elections.” Four years ago, however, the same hacker group Cotton Sandstorm, presenting themselves as the right-wing militia ‘Proud Boys’, had sent thousands of emails to the inhabitants of Florida, in which they accused the US electoral system of being corrupt. The goal, American intelligence said at the time, was to spread confusion and doubt.
If the winner is Donald Trump after November 5, analysts predict that the first official visit to the United States with the new president will be that of Russian President Vladimir Putin. If, however, the tycoon were to lose, the Russians could unleash a wave of disinformation to revive accusations of fraud and bring thousands of people back to the streets, four years after the 2020 elections.
American intelligence is preparing for the second scenario, convinced that Russia will not stand still if Kamala Harris wins. According to the Washington Post, Kremlin agents have already made a video accusing Kamala’s running mate, Minnesota governor Tim Walz, of committing sexual abuse when he was a teacher and coach of the high school football team. On social media, Trumpians relaunched the accusation, publishing violent comments against the Democratic candidate. According to the capital’s newspaper, Russian interference aims to “incite violence and discredit democracy as a political system, whoever wins the elections.” After the vote, according to sources cited by the Post, Russia could “spread threats against election officials, amplify protests and encourage protests to turn violent.” US intelligence analysts indicate the phase between the vote on 5 November and the inauguration of the new presidency on 20 January 2025 as particularly dangerous.
USA 2024: because it won’t be known immediately who won
The outcome of the American presidential elections in November is more uncertain than ever and there are many reasons why we should not expect a rapid proclamation of the winner. The United States does not have a centralized counting system of electoral votes like in Italy, where the Ministry of the Interior receives the results and then communicates them. In the US, elections are administered at the state level if not even at the county level. The votes from the various seats are counted and passed to a state electoral commission which then seals them and passes them to Congress, where in December the Senate and House meet to open them, recount them and certify them. Then in January the two Chambers in joint session certify the outcome in the presence of the Vice President. It’s a process that takes months, so who will say on election night who won the presidential election? For decades the burden and honor belonged to the Associated Press, which over the years was joined by other ‘decision desks’ – as they are called – from CNN to Fox, from CBS to NBC, up to ABC. Fox News is considered one of the most reliable because it has its own decision desk that is separate from the pro-Trump management of the station. However, you must keep in mind that this is a declaration, not a certification. What should we expect from next election night? First of all, we must consider that at 11pm New York time, when in Italy it is 5am the next day, all the polling stations will have closed. Or at least they should, because those who are already in line have the right to vote even if the polling station closes. It could thus happen that in a polling station that should have closed at 8pm, voting is still taking place at 10pm. If one of the two candidates were to win by a landslide, the result could be known overnight. But no one expects a landslide victory for either Trump or Harris, so a scenario like that of 2012, when Obama’s confirmation to the White House was announced already at 11.48 pm is unlikely and that of 2000 is more likely, when in Bush-Gore challenge, the result was known in December, only when the Supreme Court expressed its opinion at the end of an interminable battle of appeals.
On that occasion it was a handful of votes in Florida that decided: the votes were being recounted in the state and there was an advantage of only 547 votes for Bush over Gore. In December the Supreme Court decided that recounts needed to stop and declared Bush’s victory. Since 2020, the electoral method in the United States has changed and the majority of voters now prefer to vote by mail. In 2020, there was a pandemic and the idea of lining up in a crowded place indoors to vote in person was not pleasant for anyone. Thus 70% of voters preferred to vote by post. Subsequently the figure dropped to 50 percent, but it seems that this trend is now consolidated. With what outcome for the result? In states such as Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Georgia, Michigan, postal votes are allowed to be counted only after the votes cast in person have finished counting. This is why in the 2020 elections what was called “the red mirage” occurred which made people believe that Trump had won with a large majority: Republican voters preferred to vote in person and Democratic voters by post so as they were counted. postal votes, Biden closed the gap until he reached and overtook his opponent. It is possible that this will also happen in these elections because Pennsylvania, which brings 19 electoral votes and is considered a fundamental state for a candidate to win, has 9 million likely voters and at least 40% of these have chosen to vote by correspondence. Which means that 3.6 million votes will have to be counted after the others have finished counting.
It is clear that the Pennsylvania result will arrive late, certainly not by 11 pm when all the polls close. The same will be true for other key states such as Wisconsin, Michigan and Georgia. Further complicating things in this electoral cycle is the fact that from 2020 to today some swing states, in particular Georgia, Arizona and Michigan, have filled the electoral commissions – those in which the votes of the various seats – of MAGA exponents, that is, of Trumpians. Electoral commissions have the right to order the counting of votes to be stopped if any observer reports from one of the polling stations that they have witnessed fraud. With the result that the outcome of that polling station is not only not communicated immediately, but probably not even in the following hours or even days because one of the parties, whether Republican or Democratic, could challenge the electoral commission’s decision and appeal to a court electoral administration or, if even this decision does not satisfy him, appeal to the Supreme Court. And so the procedure lasts for weeks. If everything went smoothly, if the observers in Georgia, Arizona, Michigan had no criticisms to make of the vote count, if the Election Commission did not block any counting of any seats, if there was an avalanche of votes for Trump or for Harris, yes could have the result on election night. But if any of these problems were to arise, we will go to the Greek calends, because the states in the balance are the ones who will decide whether one of the candidates really has the electoral majority.