The downward revision of Italy’s growth reflects the many economic challenges the country is facing. The International Monetary Fund (IMF), in its latest World Economic Outlookforecast 0.7% growth for Italy in 2025, a decline of 0.1 percentage points compared to previous estimates. For 2026, however, a slight increase to +0.9% is expected.
The Italian and global economic challenges
The revision of the Italian estimates is symptomatic of the medium-term challenges and of global uncertainties linked to the economic policies of the new governments. Italy is not alone: the Eurozone is also recording moderate growth, with GDP expected at 1% in 2025 (-0.2 points) and 1.4% in 2026 (-0.1 points).
Among the factors that weigh on growth are:
- Global trade tensions: Protectionist policies and new tariffs could exacerbate tensions and disrupt supply chains.
- Disinflation process: Difficulties in controlling inflation could hinder the easing of monetary policy.
- Fiscal sustainability and financial stability: the divergences between the different European economies complicate the management of coordinated policies.
Italy in a global context
The global context shows signs of moderate growth, but with divergent perspectives:
- Global growth: forecast at 3.3% in 2025 and 2026, below the historical average of 3.7% (2000-2019).
- United States: the IMF has revised its growth estimates upwards for 2025, with GDP at 2.7% (+0.5 points).
- China and Russia: forecasts are increasing, with China at +4.6% in 2025 (+0.1 points) and Russia at 1.4% (+0.1 points).
Germany’s influence on the Eurozone
Germany, the pillar of the European economy, has seen a significant downward revision: growth of 0.3% in 2025 (-0.5 points) and 1.1% in 2026 (-0.3 points) is expected ). The German performance, conditioned by weakness in industrial exportshas negatively affected the entire Eurozone. However, a moderate recovery in domestic consumption, supported by the recovery in real incomes, offers positive signs for the future.
Policies and strategies for the future
The IMF highlights the need for strong policy attention to balance:
- Inflation and real growth.
- Reconstruction of tax shock absorbers.
- Response to protectionist policies which could further hinder investment and competitiveness.
In conclusion, Italy is faced with a complex, but not insurmountable challenge. The ability to address these dynamics will depend on the implementation of incisive and coordinated economic policies, both at national and European level.
The implementation of structural reforms and targeted investments could not only boost growth, but also improve the resilience of the Italian economy in the long term.