The growth of Italy in 2025 stands at +0.5%, the 3%deficit/GDP ratio. The public finance programming document approved by the CDM updates the forecasts on the accounts and traces the route in view of the next Budget Law. The maneuver, specifies the MEF, “will object to the recomposition of the tax levy by reducing the incidence of the load on income from work” and “will guarantee further refinancing of the National Health Fund”. There will also be “specific measures aimed at stimulating companies’ investments” and “guaranteeing competitiveness”. And then interventions to “support for birth and life-work conciliation”.
“We confirm the line of firm and prudent responsibility that takes into account the need for the sealing of public finance in compliance with the new European rules and the essential protections in favor of the economic and social growth of workers and families”, comments the Minister of Economy Giancarlo Giorgetti.
The owner of the MEF – as far as the agi learns – would have invited colleagues during the CDM to a revision of the expense of their dicasteries to optimize the use of funds during the budget law. Giorgetti continues on the prudence line, given the uncertainty about the markets due to the geopolitical context, which will also require more defense expenses.
The programmatic scenario of the DPFP confirms the trend of the net indebtedness provided for by the structural plan and reiterated in the DFP last April (2.8% for the year 2026, 2.6% for the year 2027 and 2.3% for the year 2028) and allows you to respect the path of net spending agreed at European level as it is consistent with the trajectory.
The document as an account of the increase in the GDP of 0.15% in 2026, of 0.3% in 2027 and 0.5 in 2028 to be allocated to defense expenses. This increase, however, will be subject to exit from the excessive deficit procedure. The growth rate of the value of the programmatic GDP stands at 0.7%in 2026; in 2027 to 0.8%; in 2028 to 0.9%. The tendential growth rate is instead 07% in 2026 and 2027 and 0.8% in 2028.
The treasure stresses that these are “very prudential” estimates that “they also suffer from the international geopolitical context”. The debt stands on values ​​lower than the PSB (where it was equal to 137.8 in 2026) and, in programmatic terms, also reduced to the tendential ones of the spring document. This indicator begins to be reduced already in 2027 and stands in 2028 to a value equal to 136.4 when the effect of the Superbonus will fail. To finance the maneuver, we will proceed with a combination of measures on the side of the revenue and interventions on shopping.
The work on the maneuver, which could land on CDM on October 14, will continue in the next few days. There would be about 8 billion available to the key measures of the next Budget Law, half could go for the reduction of IRPEF from 35% to 33% for income up to 50 thousand euros. To reach up to 60 thousand, 2 more would be needed, which would be difficult to find immediately.
Some simulations speak of an increase in the paychecks of some tens of euros for the middle class. During the CDM – as far as the aging has learned – there would be about 400 euros a total of 400 euros in the paychecks. The deputy minister of Economy Maurizio Leo is reported, in meetings with the majority forces would have reassured instead that the additional amount on the salary of the fixed employees could be around 100 euros.
The family package should be closed shortly: a book bonus is assumed for the lowest income bands, on the model of that of Veneto and Lombardy, and the push on measures that apply a family quotient. Meanwhile, the work continues to arrive at a possible revision of the criteria for the formation of the ISEE, which however should be subject to a specific measure. The executive would also be thinking about the strengthening of social security for non self -sufficient people. The deduction of the extraordinary, however, could enter into a maneuver at a later time with a amendment of the classroom, once the resources available is clarified.