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Surprise move by Tehran on the negotiations on the eve of the Midterms, perhaps also in the hope of exorcising Donald Trump’s threats of new attacks, perhaps as a weapon of mass distraction from an electoral defeat which according to polls could be worse than expected. Iran has declared itself ready to reopen the strategic Strait of Hormuz in two days instead of the seven initially planned. And Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei, in an apparent desire to facilitate talks after US Vice President JD Vance’s letter to Iranian national security chief Mohsen Rezaei, has “conferred some powers on the government”, according to President Massoud Pezeshkian. “We are working to resolve these issues through dialogue, and in this regard the Supreme Leader has given the government the necessary authority,” Pezeshkian said.
The truce of the markets and the mediation of Qatar and Pakistan
Statements which, together with some press rumors, granted a respite to the markets, with the WTI losing up to 6.7% to 97.1 dollars a barrel while Brent reached the minimum of 105.86 dollars, with the same percentage of decline. The words of the Iranian Foreign Minister also fueled hopes of a diplomatic solution: “Considering the sensitivity and gravity of the current situation, the consultations and discussions are very intense”, declared Abbas Araghchi, underlining the “very active mediation role” of Qatar and Pakistan.
The Iranian plan and Tehran’s conditions
But the spokesperson for the Iranian Foreign Ministry, Esmaeil Baghaei, underlined that the seven-phase plan presented by Iran in September remains at the center of the discussions, while confirming the acceleration of implementation times. A plan that Trump had already rejected, while leaving the door open for negotiations. “The diplomatic signals could be of a tactical nature in view of the mid-term elections,” hypothesizes Arne Lohmann Rasmussen, analyst at Global Risk Management. “Now everything depends” on Washington, Baghaei warned.
Tehran is making the reopening of the Strait conditional on a ceasefire on all fronts in the region, the unfreezing of its assets held abroad, the lifting of sanctions affecting Iran’s oil sector and the end of the US naval blockade against its ports. Only subsequently would negotiations begin on other issues, including nuclear power. When asked whether the possibility of transferring Iran’s stockpiles of highly enriched uranium to another country had been taken into consideration during the talks and whether Tehran could accept such a solution, the Iranian diplomatic spokesperson responded in the negative.
China and Russia against a resumption of military operations
In a climate of fears that the conflict could reignite after the midterm elections, China and Russia both intervened to express their opposition to the possibility of a resumption of military operations. Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi said all parties involved should focus on political solutions, rather than resorting to arms again. Vladimir Putin instead had a telephone conversation with Rezaei, while the Russian Foreign Ministry warned that the news relating to a new possible military action against Iran caused extreme concern, calling for an intensification of diplomatic efforts.