Flavio Bolsonaro beats Lula in the first round and is the favorite in the October 25th ballot which will decide who will be the 40th president of Brazil.
The Trumpian candidate obtained 47.14% of the votes, the outgoing president 45.03%, with a difference between the two of approximately 2 and a half million votes. The other minor candidates, excluded from the second round, all centre-right, together reached around 12%. Void ballots at 2.93%, blank ballots 1.84%. The turnout was 79%, in line with the last elections.
The Liberal Party (PL), the main force of the Bolsonarist camp, is about to be the protagonist of the renewed Brazilian Senate. With over 85% of the ballots counted, the group is leading in 20 of the 54 seats up for grabs, ahead of the Brazilian Democratic Movement (MDB), with seven, and the Workers’ Party (PT) of president Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, with six. The new elections concern two thirds of the seats in the upper house, made up of 81 members. The results will have to be added to those of the 27 senators elected in 2022, whose mandate continues until 2031. Among these, eight belong to the PL, five to Uniao Brasil, four to the PT, three to the Progressive Party (PP), two each to the Social Democratic Party (PSD) and the Republicans. The group is completed by a senator from the Brazilian Socialist Party (PSB), one from the MDB and one from the Christian Social Party (PSC). With 28 senators, Jair Bolsonaro’s Liberal Party (PL) would establish itself as the largest group in the upper house. The new parliamentary balance will be decisive for the balance of power between government and opposition in the next legislature, strengthening the position of the conservative camp in political and institutional battles, including those relating to the requests for impeachment of Supreme Court judges, at the center of corruption scandals.
Yesterday:
The next president of Brazil should be decided in the October 25th ballot: when around 40% of the votes have been counted, this is the most likely figure. Flavio Bolsonaro has around 50.4% of the votes, Lula at 41.4. A very large gap which, however, is unlikely to remain so at the end of the count. However, at the moment, the Trumpian candidate appears to be the favorite for final victory.
Traditionally, in fact, the first phase of the counting is very favorable to the sovereignist candidate: the first seats to be counted come from the rich southern states, where Bolsonaro is very strong. Only later will the data arrive from the north-eastern states, Lula’s strongholds, which on paper should reduce the gap between the two. At 10% of the vote, Bolsonaro had a 10 point lead, at 40% of the vote, 9 points. And it is thought that this trend, this rapprochement between the two, will continue until the end.
All eyes therefore on the second and decisive round. And here we must examine the conduct of the candidates excluded from the ballot, whose electoral weight is around 10%. They are all centre-right, so their treasure trove of votes on paper, if not totally but largely, should go to Flavio Bolsonaro. For this reason, analysts have been observing for days that Lula, to hope to be re-elected on October 25th, must gain a margin of guarantee over his opponent, already in the first round, an advantage of at least 5-7 percentage points over his opponent. If the gap is lower it is legitimate to consider Bolsonaro the favorite for the final victory.
Then, as they say in these cases, before each ballot each candidate starts again from the beginning. And Lula will certainly do everything to regain the consensus of those who perhaps did not go to vote in the first round: first of all by mobilizing those electoral sectors, the over 70s and the less well-off classes, who have historically been very favorable to him.
Finally, in the coming weeks Lula will have the opportunity, as president, to promote policies that can help him gain ground. In particular, it could get Congress to approve the 6+1 bill, i.e. the law long awaited by workers which would reduce the working week from six to five days.