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Donald Trump risks becoming a lame duck, a politically weakened president forced to govern with a hostile Congress in his final two years in the White House. This is the scenario that looms on the eve of the mid-term elections on Tuesday, with the Democrats favored in the polls to regain control of the House of Representatives and also in the running for the majority in the Senate. A possible Republican defeat could reduce the president’s ability to advance his agenda and accelerate the battle for his succession in 2028.
Trump is not on the ballot, but he turned the vote into a referendum on his presidency, asking supporters to go to the polls as if he were a candidate himself. The president has multiplied his rallies in recent days, also focusing on traditionally Republican states, from Texas to Ohio, from Iowa to Kansas, where the competition has become tighter than expected.
Approval at 31% and polls in favor of the Democrats
Weighing on the Republican Party’s prospects is the decline in the president’s popularity, whose approval rating has fallen to 31%, according to a Reuters/Ipsos poll. Discontent over the cost of living, rising petrol prices and the unpopular war against Iran risk resulting in an electoral defeat. According to estimates from aggregator Decision Desk, Democrats have an 80% chance of regaining the House of Representatives and a 57% chance of also gaining control of the Senate.
House and Senate, what’s at stake
Republicans currently have a majority of 219 seats to 214 in the House and 53 to 47 in the Senate. Winning the lower house would allow Democrats to block part of the White House’s legislative initiatives, control parliamentary committees and launch new investigations into the administration. A third impeachment procedure against Trump, already impeached twice during his first term, is not ruled out, even if a dismissal would remain highly unlikely due to the majorities required in the Senate.
Even more serious would be the loss of both Chambers. In fact, the Senate plays a decisive role in confirming presidential appointments, from members of the government to judges of the Supreme Court. To win it, the Democrats would have to defend the seats currently held and take at least four from the Republicans.
The specter of the “lame duck” and the race to 2028
The American expression “lame duck”, literally “lame duck”, indicates a president in the final phase of his mandate, especially when his political influence is reduced and he can no longer run for re-election. For Trump, who cannot aspire to a third term, an opposition-controlled Congress could bring forward this condition as early as two years before the natural expiration of the presidency, set for January 20, 2029.
A defeat in the midterm elections could also open up the succession race within the Republican Party early. Possible aspirants for the 2028 presidential candidacy include Vice President JD Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio, while the party’s attention risks progressively shifting from the outgoing president to his potential heirs.
American history, moreover, does not play in the White House’s favor: incumbent presidents have often seen their party lose seats in mid-term elections. Trump himself had suffered a setback during his first presidency. However, a possible electoral reverse would not eliminate the constitutional powers of the president, who would retain leadership of the executive until January 2029. But it could force him to govern by making greater use of presidential instruments and face two years of permanent conflict with Congress. Furthermore, Trump’s character remains unknown: instead of accepting a reduced role, the president could choose to intensify the political conflict, transforming the last two years in the White House into a long battle with the opposition.