The overtaking has already occurred a few years ago: in the South and in the Islands the number of pensions paid is significantly higher than that of workers. In 2024, in fact, compared to 7.3 million pensions paid, we had just over 6.4 million employed. This was revealed by an analysis by the CGIA Research Office in Mestre, according to which the South is the only geographical division of the country that presents this imbalance.
The region with the most marked misalignment is Puglia, which records a negative balance of 231,700 units. With the exception of Liguria, Umbria and Marche, however, the regions of the Centre-North maintain a positive balance which has strengthened, thanks to the good employment trend in the last 2/3 years. From the difference between active taxpayers (workers) and the allowances paid to pensioners, the result of Lombardy (+803,180), Veneto (+395,338), Lazio (+377,868), Emilia Romagna (+227,710) and Tuscany (+184,266) stands out, again in 2024.
LECCE, REGGIO CALABRIA, COSENZA, TARANTO AND MESSINA THE MOST IN “DIFFICULTY”
From the analysis of the balance between the number of employed people and pensions paid in 2024, the most “unbalanced” province in Italy is Lecce: the difference is equal to -90,306. Followed by Reggio Calabria with -86,977, Cosenza with 80,430, Taranto with -77,958 and Messina with -77,002. It should be noted that the high number of allowances paid in the South and in the Islands is not attributable to the excessive presence of old-age/early pensions, but instead to the high diffusion of welfare and disability treatments. A worrying result which clearly demonstrates the effects caused in recent decades by four closely related phenomena: the birth rate decline, the progressive aging of the population, an employment rate much lower than the EU average and the presence of too many irregular workers. The combination of these factors has progressively reduced the number of active taxpayers and, consequently, increased the number of welfare recipients. A problem that does not only concern Italy; Unfortunately, it grips most countries in the Western world.
COUNTER BLACK WORK
With more and more pensioners and a number of employed people who should generally remain stable, public spending is set to increase in the coming years. In a short time these dynamics could compromise the balance of public finances and the economic and social stability of Italy. To slow down this trend, it is essential to broaden the employment base, bringing out the many illegal workers present in the country, increasing, in particular, the employment rates of young people and women which, in Italy, remain among the lowest in Europe.
«IMBALANCED» SITUATION ALSO IN 8 NORTHERN PROVINCES
Probably, in the coming years the situation is expected to worsen throughout the country, even in the most economically advanced areas. However, today there are already 8 northern provinces which, like almost all of the southern ones, record a higher number of pensions paid than that of active workers. They are: Rovigo (-2,040), Sondrio (-2,793), Alessandria (-6,443), Vercelli (-7,068), Biella (-9,341), Ferrara (-9,984), Genoa (-10,074) and Savona (-13,753).
Two out of four provinces in Liguria present a result anticipated by the minus sign, while in Piedmont there are three out of eight. Of the 107 Italian provinces monitored in this analysis by the CGIA Research Office, “only” 59 have a positive balance. Finally, the only territorial areas in the South that record a positive difference are Matera (+938), Pescara (+3,547), Bari (+11,689), Cagliari (+14,014) and Ragusa (+20,333).
THE SENIORITY OF WORKERS IS A PROBLEM ESPECIALLY FOR ENTREPRENEURS IN SMALL REGIONS
As we said above, with many pensioners and few young people, businesses are also in serious difficulty. Finding highly specialized professionals on the job market has now become an almost impossible task. To date, the region with the highest seniority index of private employees is Basilicata (82.7). It means that for every 100 employees under the age of 35, there are 82.7 who are over 55. This is followed by Sardinia (82.2), Molise (81.2), Abruzzo (77.5) and Liguria (77.3). The national average figure is 65.2. The regions least “affected” by this phenomenon – even if they have already been forced to deal with this critical issue for some years – are Emilia Romagna (63.5), Campania (63.3), Veneto (62.7), Lombardy (58.6) and Trentino Alto Adige (50.2).
BY 2029 THREE MILLION WILL LEAVE THEIR JOB
In the short term, unfortunately, the situation is destined to worsen, even in the Centre-North. In fact, between 2025 and 2029, it is estimated that just over 3 million Italians will leave their jobs. Of the latter, in fact, 2,244,700 (equal to approximately 74 percent of the total) will concern people who work in the central-northern regions. These data leave no doubt: within a few years we will witness a real “escape” from desks and assembly lines, with millions of people moving from the world of work to inactivity with social, economic and employment consequences of historic importance for our country. Entrepreneurs know this well and are already struggling to find staff available to go to the factory or construction site. Let alone in a few years, when a significant part of the so-called baby-boomers will leave employment upon reaching the age limit.