2026 begins with a slowdown in the cost of living, which returns to the levels of almost a year and a half ago. But monthly consumer prices still continue to grow and the so-called shopping cart is also constantly on the rise, that set of goods which, including food and personal care products, represent the most significant expenditure items for Italians’ wallets. On the day in which the provisional data on January inflation are released, Istat also revised the basket with which it measures consumer price indices, as it does at the beginning of the year. In practice, in 2026, 8 new categories will be included in the monitoring which, according to the statistics institute, illustrate the evolution of the spending habits of Italian families.
The new entries in the basket
Among the new entries in the basket, items such as children’s aprons and school uniforms, video surveillance kits against thieves’ incursions, camping tents and backpacks or software such as antiviruses stand out. A series of products which, however, according to consumers, do not seem to fully satisfy the representativeness of the sample. As regards in particular the grouping of goods belonging to the school, with the entry of items such as uniforms, drawing albums and erasers, the basket is “definitely incomplete” for the UNC. Who complains, for example, about the lack of pencil cases, diaries, squares, compasses, markers and crayons, as well as folders, trolleys or backpacks used by students. Similar criticism also comes from Codacons which more generally complains that from the calculation of retail price trends, if on the one hand the weight of food and drinks increases, on the other the weight relating to housing and transport decreases, i.e. significant items which continue to have a heavy impact on family budgets. Preliminary price estimates for the first month of 2026 were therefore put forward on the basis of the new basket. A January which shows inflation falling from 1.2% last December to 1%, “a level just higher than that of October 2024 (+0.9%)” as the Istat technicians themselves point out. But on a monthly level, prices grow by 0.4% and it is precisely this last figure that alarms consumers the most. The cost of living falling to 1% “is only a small consolation” says the UNC according to which what matters is rather the fact that monthly inflation doubles. «Not to mention food products and non-alcoholic drinks which take off on a cyclical basis, going from +0.1% in December to +1% in January, 10 times as much, an astronomical leap that is alarming to say the least and a blow for families».
The shopping cart grows again
Indeed, also thanks to the 2.6% trend increase in the prices of food and non-alcoholic drinks highlighted by Assoutenti, the shopping cart – which notoriously represents a real thermometer of the trend in household consumption – starts to grow again in January, albeit at a slower pace than last December: from +2.2% to +2.1%. As always, the interpretations of the data are quite conflicting. Confesercenti looks above all at the monthly increase in consumer prices (“the highest since last July” he recalls) which interrupts a slowdown phase. And for this reason he reiterates his concerns about the purchasing power of families, in particular those with low incomes whose budgets are heavily affected by the items of essential expenses. Instead, the Minister of Business and Made in Italy, Adolfo Urso, focuses more on the meaning of the annual trend in the cost of living: «The inflation rate at 1%, with the stock market that is growing and the spread that is reducing, are positive data that go in the right direction of stability and growth” he states. And he claims that the data released by Eurostat shows Italy as “a model country, with inflation structurally well below the European average”. And he therefore speaks of «Positive prospects for Italian businesses and families».