INPS, simulator updated: today's 30-year-olds will retire at 70


By John

Those who are thirty years old today risk retiring at 70. The INPS updates the pension simulator, adapting it to life expectancies and returns a very unattractive picture for essentially young workers, predicting a forward shift in withdrawal from the pension market. Work. Anyone who turned 30 this year and has recently started working will be able to retire between 66 years and 8 months if they have paid 20 years of contributions and earned an allowance above a certain threshold (three times the amount monthly social security check in 2024, therefore 1,603.23 euros) and to 74 if they are unable to pay at least 20 years of contributions. According to the simulator, a man born in early 1994 who started working in early 2022 and has at least 20 years of contributions will retire in December 2063 at 69 years and 10 months of age.

However, the simulator has not yet been updated on the flexible early pension for 2024, i.e. quota 103 with 62 years of age and 41 years of contributions but only on the amounts to which one is entitled if the requirements have been reached in 2023. The maximum amount for those who qualify in 2023 it is five times the minimum payment (2,993.05 euros per month) until you reach old age when you will have the entire amount accrued thanks to your contributions. From the simulator it emerges that a man born in January 1980 who works in the private sector and began paying in 2005 (therefore entirely into the contributory system) will retire at 68 years and 9 months in November 2048.

You can bring it forward to 65 years and 7 months if you have accrued an allowance higher than a given threshold (for 2024 three times the social allowance) but must postpone it until 73 years and 2 months of age if you do not accrue a total of 20 years of contributions . In the INPS simulator which you enter without credentials (like the Spid and the Cie) remember to enter fundamental data such as any strenuous activities, early work, military service, redemption of university qualifications or figurative accreditation of compulsory maternity outside the employment relationship work because they can change the calculation of the years needed to access the pension.

«The adjustments to the increases in life expectancy of pension requirements have been updated – INPS writes in the message – based on the median ISTAT demographic scenario (base 2022) relating to the medium-long term trends of the pension and social-health system developed by the State General Accounting Office and published in December 2023 on the institutional website of the Ministry of Economy and Finance. Until 2028, the age for accessing the old-age pension remains unchanged at 67 years because there have been no increases in life expectancy while it should increase to 67 years and one month from 2029.

Furthermore, explains the INPS, for the year 2024, the maximum amount of the flexible early pension accrued on the basis of the requirements finalized by 31 December 2023 has been updated, to be paid until reaching the age required for old age pension. With the requirements achieved in 2023 it will be equal to five times the minimum treatment (maximum threshold also foreseen for 2024 together with the lengthening of the windows). Despite the tightening of access to pensions (later revised with Quota 100 in 2019), Italy is the second EU country with the highest spending on pensions compared to GDP.

According to a Eurostat document, based on data for 2021 in Italy the ratio between pension spending and GDP reached 16.3, second only to Greece (16.4%). In all EU countries, spending on pensions reached 1,882 billion euros in 2022, 12.9% of the Union's GDP. Compared to the previous year, overall spending grew by 2.8% but the ratio to GDP decreased by 0.7 points (in 2020, however, the year in which GDP fell due to Covid, it was 13.6 %). Italy is followed by Austria (15%) and France (14.9%).