The military escalation between Iran and the United States is slowing down, at least apparently. Tehran “has stopped 800 executions”, announced the White House, confirming the regime’s previous statements. Washington has made it clear that it will continue to “monitor the situation”, threatening “serious consequences if the killings continue”, but the impression is that the feared attack is frozen for the moment. As the reopening of the airspace over the skies of the Islamic Republic also suggests.
Donald Trump’s caution, shared with his Arab partners, is also based on the consideration that regime change is not a simple option. The tycoon himself made it clear, almost dumping the son of the last shah Reza Pahlavi. However, American pressure on the ayatollahs remains high: a new series of sanctions has hit the highest circle, starting with the head of the security council Ali Larijani, accused of having “coordinated the repression” of the protests.
After more than two weeks of demonstrations against the regime, which resulted in thousands of deaths (including a Canadian citizen and a Red Crescent employee), Tehran has begun to show signs of a return to normality, despite concerns of a possible raid by the Americans. The regime’s declarations were also more relaxed, after having promised “rapid and public trials” for the “rioters”, it made it known that “there is no plan” for hangings.
A sigh of relief especially for 26-year-old Erfan Soltani, the first protester to risk the gallows in this wave of protests. The authorities denied having sentenced him to death, but according to activist groups his execution was only postponed. It is not clear whether the suspension will be permanent, but Trump wanted to give credit to Tehran.
“It’s good news, let’s hope it continues like this,” the US president wrote on Truth. And according to the Iranian ambassador to Pakistan, the tycoon informed the regime “that he has no intention of attacking”, while expecting “moderation” in containing the protests.
In recent weeks the White House’s rhetoric and actions have fluctuated between threats of military attacks and sudden pauses, leaving analysts to debate whether this unpredictability is strategic, chaotic or a mix of both, so it is difficult to read what his real intentions are. Certainly, armed intervention is discouraged by Sunni allies, starting with Saudi Arabia and Turkey, who prefer a weak regime in Tehran rather than a destabilizing power vacuum for the region. But also Israel, with Benjamin Netanyahu who asked Washington to postpone the possible intervention, fearing “reprisals from Tehran”.
Palhavi continues to come forward as an alternative to the ayatollahs, having promised to abandon Iran’s nuclear program once he takes over the leadership of the country. But Trump himself does not seem to want to bet on the former crown prince: “He seems very nice and would be perfect for me, but I don’t know if the country would accept his leadership.” While waiting to understand what steps to take, Washington has decided to opt for the classic tool of retaliation, the economic one.
The Treasury Department has triggered new sanctions “against the architects of the brutal repression of peaceful demonstrators”, including Ali Larijani, who heads the highest security body: “He coordinated the response to the protests on behalf of the Supreme Leader and publicly urged the use of force”, underlined in a note. Also under sanctions are four other senior officials and “the network of shadow banks through which Iran manages annual trade worth tens of trillions of dollars, bypassing the formal international financial system.” The EU is working on new sanctions, with discussions underway between member states and the Commission. The G7 is on the same line.