The Cattaneo Institute has released an in -depth analysis on the regional vote in Calabria, highlighting how the result of 2025 differs from the scheme observed in the other consultations held between 2024 and 2025 performed clearly worse.
Higher participation than expected
According to researchers from the Cattaneo institute, the official data of the Ministry of the Interior do not return a fully realistic picture of the electoral participation. Apparently, the turnout seems low, but the reality is different: in Calabria about 20% of those entitled to vote lies abroad and, although included in the official calculation, they do not vote for the regional ones since they should go physically in the municipality of origin. If you consider only the actual residents, the participation exceeds 50%, in line with that of many regions of the center-north.
The structural advantage of the center -right
Entering the merits of the vote, Cattaneo underlines a recurring phenomenon: the structural difference between the electoral behavior of the Calabrians in the national and European elections and that to the regional ones. Even in the past, local consultations have rewarded the center -right, with the only exception of 2014, the year of the temporary success of the Democratic Party led by Matteo Renzi.
The center -right constantly benefits from a growth of moderate or centrist lists, often rooted in the territory and with candidates perceived as “neighbors” to voters. The Institute recalls that in 2019 the center -right lists had obtained 46% at the European Championships, climbing 57% to the regional of 2020: a dynamic replicated also between 2024 and 2025.
Flies and voting movements
The analysis of the electoral flows conducted on the three main Calabrian municipalities shows that abstention was low in all segments of the electorate, including that of the 5 Star Movement. The percentage drop in the M5S compared to the European Championships was due in part to the attraction exercised by the “Tridico President” list, which collected votes in the progressive area.
The Cattaneo estimates that about five percentage points of the valid votes transited “from the left to the right”, coming largely from the liberal-democratic area (action, Italy Viva, +Europe) and from former voters of the M5S.
A wide field in difficulty
While recognizing the political defeat of the wide field, the Cattaneo Institute invites to caution in the conclusions: the Calabrian result, the researchers explain, reflects structural and long -term factors of regional electoral behavior rather than contingent dynamics. However, they add, the 2025 vote does not offer encouraging signals on the center -left’s ability to propose itself as a credible competitor of the center -right in a future national level challenge.