A year to remember has been archived, both for those invested in shares and for those who have bet on BTPs and other government bonds, 2024 promises to be full of challenges on the financial markets. There will be a slalom to navigate between the expected change of pace of the central banks on rates, the slowdown in the economies of giants such as China and Germany, the geopolitical unknowns, among which the presidential elections in the United States must be included. There is a widespread idea among analysts that, at least for now, savers and investors can continue to focus on the USA whose economy has resisted the long series of rate tightening by the Fed, much better than Europe did which it suffered more from the increases decided by the ECB to keep inflation at bay.
However, on American equities the advice is to diversify. And not to focus only on the big tech companies that have consecrated the Nasdaq as the best list of 2023 in front of Piazza Affari, nor only on the pharmaceutical companies committed to fighting obesity that made a splash in the year just ended. According to IG Italia, Wall Street will extend the rally in the first quarter while a slowdown in the growth of the US economy could lead to a significant trend reversal later on. On bonds, there is certainly a drop in yields and a consequent appreciation of government bonds to take into account: good news for those who purchased them on balance. In the currency markets, it is better to choose the euro over the dollar which has already weakened due to the prospect of a rate cut by the Fed, expected as early as next March, before a similar move by the ECB. The Eurodollar exchange rate could therefore continue the upward movement that began in October.
For those who want to invest in raw materials, the picture is more varied. The recent weakness of oil is linked above all to the expectations of a possible excess supply in the coming months which could however be counterbalanced by the risks linked to the crisis in the Middle East. In its outlook, IG believes that crude oil prices could remain at low levels in the coming months, between 60 and 80 dollars a barrel, and then recover during the second half of the year. The advice instead is not to stop believing in gold which has fully regained its nature as a safe haven asset also due to the outbreak of the conflict between Israelis and Palestinians. In 2024 there is a bet that it can reach new historic highs. Finally, a word about Bitcoin. Analysts believe that the institutionalization of cryptocurrency as a financial instrument will bring new gains in the first half of the year with an inevitable decline in the second half of the year.