The impact of the American tariffs on employment levels in Italy is significant: they could cost Italy almost 90 thousand jobs, of which over 13 thousand (around 15%) in the southern regions, especially in Campania (almost 5 thousand), Puglia and Sicily. This is underlined by the latest Svimez 2025 report on the economy and society of the South. The world economy, it is recalled, is going through a phase of structural instability, marked by a combination of economic, geopolitical and technological factors. And the territories and production systems less oriented towards innovation – with a limited presence of medium-large companies and a lower capacity for technological investment – are the most vulnerable.
For Italy, the stakes are high: with 64.8 billion in exports to the USA in 2024 (21% of non-EU exports and 2.9% of GDP), the country is the third European economy in terms of value of overseas sales. From 2010 to 2024, Italian exports to the United States more than tripled and the trade surplus – which rose to 37 billion – quadrupled, contributing decisively to national growth.
The Italian exposure, the report recalls, is very differentiated: Lombardy (13.7 billion), Emilia-Romagna and Tuscany (both around 10 billion) concentrate almost 55% of exports to the United States. In the South, Campania leads with 1.9 billion, followed by Abruzzo (1.6 billion), Sicily (1 billion) and Puglia (930 million). Despite representing only 10% of national exports to the USA, in recent years the American market has been a significant lever for foreign demand from the South.
The most exposed southern sectors are Agroindustrial (1.7 billion, over a quarter of the area’s exports), Pharmaceuticals (1 billion) and Petrochemicals (900 million). According to the Report’s estimates, the impact of the duties would lead to a reduction in annual global added value of around 280 billion euros, concentrated above all in the Asian economies. China would suffer a drop of over 90 billion (-0.54%), equal to a third of the overall impact. The European Union would lose 43 billion (15% of the total), with Germany most affected in absolute terms (-11 billion), while France and Spain would record smaller contractions.
For Italy, a reduction of 6.3 billion is expected, particularly significant in relative terms (-0.3%). Almost 90% of the loss would be concentrated in the Centre-North: Lombardy would be the most penalized region, with a drop of over 2 billion (-0.5%) and almost 25 thousand jobs at risk. Veneto (-725 million) and Emilia-Romagna (-685 million) would also suffer heavy effects. In the South, the greatest losses concern Campania (-240 million), Puglia (-122 million) and Sicily (-117 million), while significant contractions in relative terms are recorded in Molise (-0.4%) and Basilicata (-0.2%). Abruzzo, which exports a share of 4% of its GDP to the USA, higher than the national average, is expected to decline by 0.2%.
Svimez, in the South the Zes is an ambitious instrument for local industry
The Zes Unica «represents one of the most ambitious attempts in recent years to transform industrial policy on a truly territorial basis». This is underlined by the latest Svimez 2025 report on the economy and society of the South. Some important features emerge from the implementation of the new intervention. The new governance, we read, has certainly produced a procedural acceleration, with a significant reduction in the average time to obtain all the qualifications necessary to start a productive investment – which went from more than 98 days on average to almost 54. Between March 2024 and November 2025, 865 authorizations were issued, for 3.7 billion in investments. Puglia, Campania and Sicily emerge as the most reactive poles, with Sardinia, Abruzzo and Basilicata further behind. Among the most recent developments, it is highlighted that the 2026 Budget Law has extended the Zes Unica tax credit to the three-year period 2026-2028, with resources equal to 2.3 billion for 2026, 1 billion for 2027 and 0.75 billion for 2028. This is “a multi-year extension that reduces uncertainty for businesses, allowing for more stable investment planning”.
Sbarra: “The energy, skills and potential of the South represent a great opportunity for the entire country”
The Undersecretary to the Presidency of the Council with responsibility for the South, Luigi Sbarra, spoke this morning at the presentation of the Svimez 2025 Report “The economy and society of the South”, which was held in the New Hall of the Parliamentary Groups of the Chamber of Deputies. In his speech, the Undersecretary extended heartfelt thanks to the President Adriano Giannola and the Director General Luca Bianchi, underlining how the Svimez annual report represents “a fundamental interpretative map, capable of reading in depth the structural dynamics of the South and of orienting public policies based on solid data”. The numbers, he highlighted, are not simple statistical findings, but “a compass to evaluate the results achieved and consciously define the route for the future”. During his speech he then recalled the strategic role of the ZES Unica Mezzogiorno, “a central instrument of industrial policy”, which has already produced concrete results: reduced authorization times, over 900 authorizations issued, 5.3 billion in investments and more than 15,900 employment benefits. Recalling some of the main data contained in the Report – including the economic growth above the national average in the last three years, the exceeding of the 50% employment threshold and the increase in skilled youth employment – the Undersecretary underlined how these results are the result of the policies adopted by the Meloni Government to strengthen investments, work and development in the South. “These are policies – stated Undersecretary Sbarra – aimed at creating stable, attractive and competitive conditions in the South that allow young people to build their future in the area, without being forced to leave. The energy, skills and potential of the South represent a great opportunity for the entire country.” “Moreover, the South is consolidating its role – declared the Undersecretary – as a natural candidate for the challenge of the global Mediterranean, also in relation to the strategic role it can play in the implementation of the Mattei Plan and in the implementation of large projects, such as the redevelopment of Bagnoli, which will allow it to host the America’s Cup 2027”.