Lighten Irpef for incomes up to 50 thousand euros. This is the new challenge that the government could address with the next economic maneuver. It would represent a further step forward compared to the last intervention which reduced – but only for this year – the tax rates from four to three, with a benefit especially for low incomes.
The crux, however, remains the same: resources. Which, according to the numbers, may not be of little importance. In any case, everything will depend on the success of the‘operation “biennial preventive concordat”. The government has simplified and made this tool designed for VAT numbers convenient, but in reality the first payment deadline with memberships is scheduled for the 31st and only after that will it be possible to verify the resources. In the meantime, the hunt for resources is already underway to confirm what has already been approved for this year. Not only the reduction of the wedge and the first tranche of the Irpef discount, but also the decontributions for working mothers. It is precisely on this last chapter that the first certainties seem to be arriving. Not only to confirm the relief, now limited to just one year for working mothers with only two children, but also to extend it from employees to professional workers, to mothers with VAT numbers. The new Irpef challenge, however, is not a suggestion. The vice-minister of the economy, Maurizio Leo, had not hidden since last November, when the reduction from 4 to 3 rates was decided, the objective of making further progress for incomes up to 50,000 euros. A mantra he repeated several times, including in a recent interview. “the new tax breaks – he said – will have to concern the income bracket from 35 thousand euros, where the benefit of the tax wedge cut ends, to 50 thousand euros, even a little more”. In practice, on the middle class. At the moment there are three Irpef rates: the first, of 23%, stops at 28 thousand euros; the second of 35% applies between 28 thousand and 50 thousand euros; the third of 43% above this threshold.
The goal in the long run is to reduce the rate to just two, remodulating the deductions to avoid penalties. However, this appears difficult to achieve at the moment. It is likely that the intermediate rate of 35% could be reduced by one or two points. However, this project is closely linked to the biennial preventive agreement, i.e. the mechanism by which VAT numbers can decide to agree – based on specific category parameters – the payments to be made in the two years. It will be necessary to understand what revenue this instrument will provide this year and therefore how much it will be able to guarantee next year in a practically automatic way. This, combined with the trend in tax revenue which currently seems to be running at a good pace with revenues in the first six months being 13 billion higher than in the first half of 2023, could allow the Irpef reduction. The framework of the proceeds and resources needed for the various interventions, which as always can be modulated, is however not yet defined. The “political” appointment is set for August 30, when Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni will meet with the two Deputy Prime Ministers Matteo Salvini and Antonio Tajani. Then there will be the first Council of Ministers in September in which, as per tradition, the Minister of Economy will once again ask his colleagues to develop spending savings, the so-called spending review from which the government would aim to collect 2 billion. This year, in addition to the Nadef with the new macroeconomic framework that must be approved by September 27, the government will have to develop the seven-year recovery plan with the new spending parameters provided for by the EU pact. The maneuver, which is currently estimated at 22-23 billion, will get into full swing.