In an international context to say the least and in a political climate that is anything but easy Tomorrow the twenty -seven heads of state or EU government return to gather in Brussels. The will is to affirm The role of a united and reliable European Union in a world crossed by instability and fragmentation. But it won’t be simple. The agenda promises to be dense and the text of the conclusions – still to be filed – is unusually long: the dossiers range from war to Ukraine to tensions in the Middle East, from European defense to competitiveness, passing through the transatlantic trade and the management of migratory flows. But the elephant in the room is once again the relationship with the United States, especially After the tensions at the NATO summit that closed to the Hague (23 EU States also members of the alliance) with the threats of the American President to double the duties against Spain for having refused to share the 5% of GDP in defense. The twenty -seven – who will have to deal with the rearm expenditure with new tools, since the current ones had been designed for target around 2% – will face relations with the American president, Donald Trump, for dinner. On the commercial front, the EU is preparing for retaliation measures in the event of escalation but with the desire to avoid a commercial conflict. The twenty -seven do not exclude the hypothesis of accepting 10% duties in exchange for the removal of higher rates on steel and aluminum. The possibility of creating common markets on strategic sectors, such as critical raw materials and semiconductors is also evaluated. For the commission, the sovereignty of the rules is untouchable but several states do not disdain to sweep away some regulations that represents a non -tariff barrier not only for American companies but also for European ones. Of the USA – and also of China – we speak to dinner “because it is time for the open discussion, where there may be a frank comparison, without having to agree on the statements to be included in the conclusions”, explains a European diplomat. But the conclusions will not be twenty -seven on Ukraine.
Once again the Hungarian premier, Viktor Orban – who today presented himself to NATO by announcing that his personal commitment is to keep Kiev away from the alliance – will get against any reference to the opening of the negotiating chapters for the adhesion of Ukraine. And on the other hand – explains a European diplomatic source – many states have frustration due to the lack of a sign of trust and support for a country that has also been fighting for Europe for over three years. The Ukrainian president, Volodymyr Zelensky, will only intervene in video-vacation and not in the presence due to the intensification of the Russian bombings on the country. Just as it will not be easy to get to unanimous conclusions about relations with Israel. The discussion will be polarized between those who – as the Netherlands and Ireland – pushes for a review of the EU -Israel Association agreement, and who – including Italy and Germany – fears that the initiative can further stiffen relationships. The shared goal remains the cessation of hostilities and humanitarian access to Gaza, but a consent on the tool to be used to make the right pressure on the government of Benjamin Netanyahu is missing. “The European Council acknowledges the Review in progress by Israel of Article 2 of the EU-Israel Association Agreement and invites the Council to continue the discussions on the following to be given, if appropriate, in July 2025, taking into account the evolution of the situation on the ground”, is the text of the draft of the conclusions that Agi has read. For migrations we return to talk about Libya, also on the push of Italy, considered a direct threat to the safety and cause of the surge of migratory flows to Europe.