The war in Ukraine He entered a critical phase. The decision of the United States to suspend the military aid could radically change the balance of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict. For Kievthis is an existential challenge: without American support, the resistance capacity of Ukrainian forces It is seriously put to the test. But for how long they will be able to hold the defenses without the constant flow of Weapons, ammunition and funding?
The importance of American aid for Ukraine
From the beginning of the Russian invasion in 2022The United States have provided Ukraine beyond 120 billion dollarsof which more than half intended for military supplies, including advanced weapons, air defense systems and combat drones. This support has allowed Ukrainian Armed Forces to maintain control on large areas of the territory and to conduct strategic counter -offensive.
The suspension of these US military aid Leave a huge void. The Ukrainian forces depend on western armaments To support field operations and to counter the Russian advance. Without a continuous influx of Missiles, drones, ammunition and armored vehiclestheir defense ability weakens quickly.
Without help, can the front hold?
Ukrainian ammunition stocks are already under pressure, with reporting reports in different front sectors. The absence of new supplies could lead to a drastic reduction in offensive capacity and even the loss of strategic positions.
- Aerial defense: Russia has intensified the attacks with Hypersonic missiles and kamikaze drones. Without new Western defense systems, many Ukrainian cities risk becoming vulnerable to air attacks.
- Ammunition and artillery: Ukraine uses thousands of shots on average born artillery per day. If the flow from USA and Europe It stops, the reserves will be exhausted in a few months.
- Field mobility: i Army tanks Abramsi Leopard 2 and armored vehicles provided by the allies are essential to reject Russian attacks. The lack of spare parts and new units could limit operational skills.
According to some analysts, without adequate support, Ukraine could see a significant deterioration of its military position already within six months. There Russiawhich has a wider war production capacity and a constant influx of resources, could exploit this weakness to gain ground in Donbass and the south of Ukraine.
Can Europe compensate the void left by the USA?
The question now is: theEuropean Union will be able to fill the void left by Washington? The plan of 800 billion euros proposed by Brussels aims to strengthen the European defense And support Kiev, but there are several unknowns.
- Timing: European funds take time to be unlocked and distributed. Ukraine needs immediate military aidnot in several months.
- Industrial ability: Europe must increase the production of NATO ammunition, reconnaissance drones and anti -aircraft defense systems To support Kiev on a large scale.
- Political will: some EU countrieslike theHungaryare more reluctant than others to engage in prolonged military support.
If theEuropean Union He will not be able to intervene quickly, Ukraine may find himself forced to review his strategy and seek a compromise with Fly.
Possible future scenarios
Without American support, Ukraine has three possible scenarios in front of it:
- Resistance with European support: if theEU He manages to quickly intensify his help, Ukraine could continue to defend himself and maintain current positions.
- Conflict of attrition: with increasingly limited resources, Kiev may have to reduce offensive operations and focus on the defense of Strategic cities such as Kharkiv, Odessa and Dnipro.
- Compromise with Russia: if the field conditions worsen drastically, Ukraine could be forced to negotiate with Flyaccepting territorial concessions in Donbass and Crimea.
Time holds for Kiev
The suspension of US military aid marks a turning point for the Conflict in Ukraine. The resistance of the country will depend on the speed with which Europe and other NATO allies they will be able to intervene to fill the void left by United States.
In the meantime, Vladimir Putin Observe carefully, ready to exploit any weakness on the Ukrainian front. The question is no longer if Ukraine will be able to resist without American aid, but How long.