New surprise coup by Unicredit which is targeting Banco Bpm and aiming to become the third largest bank in the European panorama and to consolidate in Italy with synergies worth 1.2 billion euros.
A blitz that finds the economy minister cold Giancarlo Giorgetti and the deputy prime minister and minister of transport and infrastructure, Matteo Salvini, who must not hide their irritation. Government sources say that the operation was communicated close to the resolution of the UniCredit Board of Directors and the Government was only able to take note of it but will investigate further with the Golden power procedure, as required by law and as has always happened in the past for similar cases . For the executive, among other things, the purpose of the operation is not clear, also given the concomitance with the Italian institution’s interest in the German Commerzbank.
But here’s the deal
After Commerzbank, put on stand-by for the moment pending the outcome of the elections in Germany next February, Andrea Orcel is looking at the domestic market with a voluntary public exchange offer of over 10 billion euros for the institute led by Giuseppe Castagna.
An incursion, which took place over the weekend and of which both the institutions and the BPM top management were notified in the near future. “I would say that the Bpm operation is an operation that has been expected for years, it is very complementary to us and does not affect the network much, de facto the customer impact will be entirely positive and adds a lot of value”, says the CEO. It is an operation “communicated but not agreed with the government”, clarifies Giorgetti.
The offer set up by Unicredit which lost 4.77% on the stock market to 36.27 euros, shuffles the cards to a third banking hub with Piazza Meda as a pivot. In fact, the double move is recent, first on managed savings with the takeover bid for Anima and then, above all, on MPS of which the Banco has become one of the main shareholders following the further sale of shares by the Mef. On Monte “we have no ambitions”, specifies Orcel who looked at the dossier without then moving forward, but before Siena – which leaves 2.23% at Piazza Affari at 5.8 euros – was restored by the care of Luigi Lovaglio .
Salvini doesn’t really like the move and asks for the intervention of the Bank of Italy. “I wouldn’t want anyone to want to stop the Bpm-Mps agreement to do others a favour”, is the opinion of the deputy prime minister who notes that “Unicredit now has little or nothing Italian” and is a “foreign bank”.
Giorgetti is no exception. “Then we will see, as is known, golden power exists. The government will make its assessments, it will carefully evaluate when Unicredit will send its proposal for the appropriate authorizations”, he adds. In short order Orcel said he agreed: “These are all complicated operations when you touch the banking system: caution is needed” and therefore what the government will evaluate “is the correct response we expected”. Giorgetti also underlines another fear: “Citing von Clausevitz, the surest way to lose the war is to engage on two fronts, then who knows, maybe this time this rule won’t be true”.
It is not lost on us that Unicredit now finds itself running on two fronts. On the one hand, hinge the Banco Bpm operation with an offer – explains Orcel – which “is not binding at the moment, it is made in good faith” and which, if completed, will be completed by next June at the latest. A stumbling block could be the 0.5% premium on Bpm shares valued at 6.657 euros and which today, however, went higher: they reached 7 euros with the stock rising by 5.58%.
Enpam, for example, which has 1.99% of the Bank, considers the offer low. Pending the operation there is also a capital increase, equal to 13.9% of the share capital which will be voted on at the extraordinary meeting of Unicredit on 10 April. In the meantime, within three weeks, in the stages of the ops, the document to Consob and the requests for authorizations to the ECB, Bank of Italy and Ivass are expected also for the controlling stake in Anima for which Bpm has launched an offer.
On the other front Unicredit must manage what is currently only “an investment” in Commerzbank that “has time to mature”. The Italian institute, between derivatives and shares, is the largest shareholder with 21% and can rise, if the ECB authorizes it, to the takeover threshold of 29.9%. And that doesn’t mean it does. Certainly not anytime soon.
With the watershed German elections, if there is an agreement it won’t be for a year. Therefore any acquisition and integration of Banco Bpm which “we hope will take place quickly and smoothly, will remain independent – Orcel points out – from any hypothetical and future integration between HvB and Commerzbank”. The latter on the Frankfurt stock exchange lost 4.86% to 14.58 euros with the market fearing a disengagement by Unicredit. On the other hand, the integration costs with Banco Bpm of 2 billion euros, equal to 50 points of impact on the Cet1 coefficient, lead analysts to think that the German operation will be abandoned.