Donald Trump soars in the polls despite or rather thanks to the flurry of indictments. After the fourth in Georgiafor which he must be formed by Friday, perhaps with the coveted mugshot to be transformed into an electoral icon, appears more and more like a single man in charge. According to a Cbs-YouGov poll, the former president collects 62% of the preferences among Republican voters against 16% of his main rival Ron DeSantis and 7% of the entrepreneur of Indian origin Vivek Ramaswamy, for now the only surprise in the race at the White House.
The tycoon also has an advantage in Iowa, the state that with its caucuses on January 15 will kick off the Republican primaries, giving the winner an important boost for the subsequent stages. According to a poll by the local newspaper Des Moines Register, the Donald is ahead of the Florida governor by 23 points, 42% to 19%: a gap not seen here since George W. Bush in 2000. They follow, among the 14 candidates, African-American Senator Tim Scott (9%), former South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley and former Vice President Mike Pence (both 6%), former New Jersey Governor Chris Christie (5%) and l entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy (4%). All others are at 2% or below. Trump’s leap comes on the eve of Wednesday’s first TV debate on Fox News between the presidential candidates of the Grand Old Party, which the former president chose to boycott by releasing a recorded interview with his friend and supporter Tucker Carlson in the same hours , the anchor kicked out of the conservative network. There are three reasons for the decision. The first is linked precisely to the large advantage in the polls: «the public knows who I am and knows of the success of my presidency. This is why I will not do the debates », he explained in Truth, even if he wants face to face with Joe Biden at all costs. The second is that his lawyers have advised him to avoid legal risks in such an event. The third is revenge against Rupert Murdoch and his Fox News, guilty of having turned their backs on him. In any case it will be the stone guest, and one of the main topics of discussion. His rivals will try to take advantage of his absence to launch single-digit campaigns in the polls, apart from DeSantis, who will become the big target at this point. Seven candidates have qualified so far. By dodging the debate, Trump escapes the most basic democratic confrontation, moreover organized by the party. But by now, according to many observers, his populism has exceeded all limits, projecting him into a post-democratic horizon where facts lose value and are replaced by an ideological act of faith that transforms trials by subversion into political martyrdom. It remains to be seen if and how many sentences he will suffer before the Republican convention that should crown him. And, if elected in November, what political viability will a president already convicted or on trial for trying to overturn the outcome of the vote in 2020 have.