«European leaders have shown strength, the 90 billion loan will have an impact on the negotiations». Once the post-summit toxins have partially evaporated, the EU tries to start again from the words of Volodymyr Zelensky, skilled in exalting the positive side of the failed agreement between the 27 on the use of assets. Europe’s position does not change on Ukraine.
And, starting from April, Kiev will be able to count on the resources of the Old Continent to continue to defend itself.
The Miami talks and the uncertain role of Europe
As Zelensky anticipated, the agreement on the 90 billion loan cannot fail to end up on the table of talks in Miami, where the Washington and Moscow delegations landed.
And where the Ukrainian negotiators could also arrive. It is not clear, however, whether Europeans will also be invited to Florida. Brussels’ position, clearly not third party to the parties, could once again lead the EU to enter the negotiations at a later date.
But Europe has already shown on two occasions that it is capable of undermining American peace plans.
Security guarantees, NATO and the future of Ukraine
The EU asks for ironclad security guarantees, ranging from the presence of the Volenterosi troops on the ground to the armoring of Kiev’s entry into the Union. On Ukraine’s membership of NATO – which Moscow considers inadmissible – the Europeans have not yet completely given in. Speaking to the 27, Zelensky clarified that it is not his choice and that, on the contrary, the entry of the Alliance would be the best security guarantee.
European security and the hard line on Putin
If on the point of territories the EU follows Zelensky’s indications on that of guarantees, it will have its say starting from an assumption: the security we are talking about is not Ukraine’s but Europe’s. At the summit of the 27, several leaders, starting with the current president Mette Frederiksen, reiterated their belief that Vladimir Putin will not stop. And that even after a possible peace, relations with the Europeans will not return to the way they were before.
New sanctions and acceleration of European rearmament
In January the EU will work on a new sanctions package. The contours are still undefined – some aim to increase Moscow’s commercial isolation, others to further reduce the freedom of movement of Russians in Europe – but the objective is to have it come into force by February 24, the fourth anniversary of the war. In parallel, the Commission and member countries aim to accelerate the implementation of rearmament programs. The ever-growing suspicions of Donald Trump’s disengagement have increased the sense of urgency of many leaders, starting with the Nordics.
Defense industry and issue of sovereign vetoes
The interconnections of the Ukrainian and European defense industries will also increase. In Kiev, Zelensky and Portuguese Prime Minister Luis Montenegro signed a partnership for the production of maritime drones. On sanctions and, in the future, on enlargement, the EU will still have to deal with the so-called Visegrad3, the sovereignist trio formed by the Czech Andrej Babis, the Hungarian Viktor Orban and the Slovakian Robert Fico. The Hungarian leader does not waste a day in attacking EU strategies but the yes to the 90 billion loan also came with his approval.
Europe accelerates and looks beyond the vetoes
Europe no longer wants to be held hostage by Budapest, as demonstrated by the use of Article 122 and the qualified majority for the indefinite freezing of assets. The experiment could be repeated, with all due respect to those who want to do everything to avoid a multi-speed Europe. Before greeting the 27, the President of the European Council Antonio Costa gave them the Memoirs of Jean Monnet. Underlining a passage: “When the problem becomes the same for everyone and everyone shares the same concern to solve it, differences and suspicions disappear.”