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Exchanges of accusations and, above all, attacks, between the United States and Iran in Hormuz which make the truce and the agreement stipulated to end the war extremely fragile, even if the parties have agreed to hold a new round of negotiations in Qatar in July. Bahrain also reported being targeted by Iranian drones, a probable retaliation following American attacks on Tehran’s military sites, while a second oil tanker was attacked in the strait in a few days.
The military escalation and the exchange of accusations
Iran accused the United States of violating the agreement after the Central Command announced that it had attacked Iranian missile and drone depots and coastal radar stations, in response to “unjustified aggression against merchant traffic by Iranian forces.” Tehran called these attacks “brutal” and “a clear violation” of the ceasefire, and the Pasdaran responded by saying they had struck American sites in the Gulf region. “If the aggression were to repeat, our response will be broader,” the Islamic Revolutionary Guards warned. Bahrain then reported it had been targeted by several Iranian drones in the early hours of Saturday and accused Tehran of “sabotaging peace efforts.”
New attack in the Straits and naval blockade
A few hours later, a maritime traffic monitoring body run by the British Navy reported that an oil tanker in the Strait of Hormuz had been hit by a shell, the second attack on a vessel since Thursday. The vessel, the Kiku, flies the Panamanian flag and had left two days earlier from an oil field in Qatar. The attack risks further discouraging the transit of ships through that stretch of sea that Iran has agreed to reopen as part of the ceasefire agreement with the United States. Tehran warned ships not to enter or exit the Gulf through the strait without authorization, but naval traffic continued, with some vessels using routes not approved by the regime.
The diplomatic route: talks expected in Doha and Pakistan
Despite everything, a new round of US-Iran talks is expected to begin in July and be held in Doha, Qatar, to address the issue of frozen Iranian assets. According to Al Arabya, which reported the news citing informed sources, “Pakistan will subsequently host a round of negotiations between the United States and Iran on the nuclear issue.” The TV also talked about an official visit to Iran by Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif on 2 July.
Washington’s hard line: JD Vance’s statements
And while Donald Trump is silent and focuses on domestic political issues, his number two, Jd Vance, adds fuel to the fire by warning that “violence is responded to with violence”: “Iran has signed a ceasefire agreement. We have respected it. If they have objections to the methods of implementation of the memorandum of understanding, they can pick up the phone and call. But we will respond to violence with violence”, wrote the American vice president on X after the United States responded to Iran’s attacks on a merchant ship. For Vance, deal or no deal, the United States emerges victorious from the war. “The Iranian nuclear program remains destroyed and they are much weaker, my opinion is that America wins in both cases.”