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Inacio Lula triumphed in the Brazilian elections, with an unexpected and epochal comeback over Flavio Bolsosonaro: millions of supporters celebrated their beloved worker president all night between Sunday and Monday. Especially the young people, to whom the winner dedicated his success. “I thank their generosity and how they fought to defend democracy,” he declared immediately, in an already festive Sao Paulo.
The reaction of the markets was different: the stock market collapsed by almost 17%, with trading suspended. This hasn’t happened since 2020, since the Covid era. The Brazilian currency also plummeted: the dollar soared by 12.04%, reaching 5.597 against the real. And the country risk index also increased by 27%, a figure that could make it more expensive for Brasilia to raise funds abroad. Experts believe that it is “an adjustment of position” in the face of the great surprise at the polls and that there is not a structural problem. In any case, Lula is considering entrusting the Economy to his deputy, the moderate Geraldo Alckmin, to give a reassuring signal to Faria Lima, the financial district of Sao Paulo. That said, the victory of the latest icon of the global left was extraordinary: he outclassed Trumpian candidate Flavio Bolsonaro in the runoff, confirming himself as president of Brazil for the fourth time. The final data gives him 51.74% of the preferences against 48.2% of his rival: a clear difference, well above the head-to-head expected on the eve.
However, Bolsonaro did not acknowledge defeat and announced that he will ask for the vote to be annulled, which in his opinion was distorted by the judge’s decision to postpone the closing of the polls for two hours, a measure also requested by him. A coup position which however at the moment appears isolated: the president of the Electoral Court, appointed by the father, has ratified the validity of the vote. In short, it seems like a move destined for failure, also taking into account the large final gap.
Lula also stopped the advance of the Trumpian right in Latin America. And after admitting that he had never had a smartphone, he also slammed Meta and his interference in his electoral campaign. Good news also for the LGBT community, for the rights of minorities and indigenous people. And also for environmental policies to defend the Amazon. But the victory is also historic for its methods: never in Brazil has a candidate won after losing in the first round. And never winning so many votes, over 64 million.
Behind the victory of this highlander of global progressivism there is certainly a boom in participation: abstention dropped by two points, a sign that those who stayed at home in the first round also voted, but changed their minds, perhaps driven by fear of another Bolsonaro as president. Thus the most Catholic country in the world will not be led for the first time by an evangelical. The comeback is the result of popular mobilization in the streets and online. Thanks to the contribution of his online “army” and the green light for social reforms (think of the short week), Lula managed to recover a situation that seemed absolutely hopeless: on the night of the first round he was about two million votes behind his opponent.
Bolsonaro was sure of victory, convinced that he would receive the nine million votes of the excluded candidates, all of them centre-right. But this time too, the elderly leader who turns 81 years old, after Jair, beat another Bolsonaro. Now he will have to govern a country with a parliament in the hands of the right and keep his electoral campaign promises. Furthermore, he knows that he does not have another mandate available and will certainly have to deal with his succession. But he’ll think about it from tomorrow. For now, he’s enjoying the party. Millions of Brazilians colored Copacabana like the Avenida Paulista in Sao Paulo with their red shirts, as if Brazil had won the sixth World Cup, happy and proud, making the ‘L’ with their hand, symbol of their leader. A president still in the saddle, despite many on the verge of thinking that he was now a leader of the past, to be relegated among the figures of the twentieth century. Instead, surprisingly, the Brazilian people, through the vote, responded differently.