Calabria is a land that has always inspired the southern philosophy of people accustomed to fighting. But in the last thirty years the magic seems to have stopped. The region, increasingly empty, appears resigned to a destiny of desolate old age. The small villages of the more internal areas are rapidly withering due to a lack of population turnover. Long-term demographic forecasts generally indicate a strengthening of the trend towards depopulation in less economically attractive areas and their progressive ageing.
The “demographic winter” is no longer an evocative formula but a fact. The decline in births, with a constantly falling birth rate, weighs on growth prospects and puts pressure on public finances, the job market, transport, fashion and tourism. Fewer young people means fewer taxpayers, less internal demand. The decline in birthrates widens territorial gaps and especially affects internal areas, where the State struggles to guarantee essential services. A systemic crisis that is upsetting the balance, putting the future of human civilization at risk in the most remote countries, areas that the State has already condemned to desertification, considering the demographic structure of small villages definitively compromised.
The scenario
Between now and 2050, Italy will lose 4.6 million inhabitants. The natural balance, already negative by 280 thousand units in 2024, will drop to -462 thousand. Even the migratory balance, currently positive for 244 thousand people, will be reduced to 166 thousand. Almost 77% of the contraction will be concentrated in the South, where 3.5 million residents will be lost. It is here that subtraction takes on the features of a structural transformation. In the South, births will go from 131 thousand in 2024 to less than 100 thousand in 2050. The base is narrowing, the pool of women of childbearing age is reduced. In Calabria the number of children per fertile woman fell to 18.5, down from 18.7 the previous year. Without migratory flows capable of reversing the trend, the southern population would decrease by 18%, with even more marked peaks in Basilicata (-22.5%), Sardinia (-22%), Calabria (-19.6%) and Molise (-19.4%). A net downsizing is looming for the region: from the current 1,834,646 inhabitants it will drop to 1,493,683 in 2050, with over 340 thousand fewer people. A subtraction that translates into merged schools, empty classes, services that are more difficult to support, and changed health care needs. And a lot of loneliness.
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