The Middle Eastern tsunami following October 7, 2023 seems to sweep away another decades-old certainty: the stability of the Syrian power system, embodied by Syrian President Bashar al Assad and for years supported by the military, political and diplomatic efforts of Iran and Russia.
The tidal wave that has arisen in the remote Syrian north-west controlled by jihadist forces who are clients of Turkey is overwhelming the main Syrian cities in the north and center, almost without a blow, starting from Aleppo, threatening the stability of the regime, now surrounded by the resurgence of internal revolts also along the Euphrates valley and the southern regions on the border with Jordan.
In this chaos whose contours are more uncertain than ever but which sees the Iranian military position significantly weakened in Syria closest to Hezbollah’s Lebanon, thousands of civilians are fleeing from the conflict and the UN has started the evacuation of personnel from Aleppo, which has fallen into the hands of the rebels, while the Farnesina has reassured the conditions of the approximately 300 Italians reported in the tormented Middle Eastern country. Of these, 120 are registered in Aleppo and most will be evacuated in the next few hours towards Damascus, where Ambassador Stefano Ravagnan, who settled in the Syrian capital only a few days ago, awaits them.
Foreign Minister Antonio Tajani announced that only a few Italian-Syrian family groups and very few Italian religious groups had decided to remain in Aleppo. For the moment, said the deputy prime minister, “there are no dangers for our compatriots also because the rebels have clearly said that they will not touch or carry out hostile operations against civilians, foreigners and even Christians”.
The offensive, which began only three days ago, first hit the countryside west of Aleppo and then the entire Syrian metropolis. This was totally conquered during the night and in the early hours of the day, while the government forces melted like snow in the sun in all their bases and positions, leaving the military airports of Kuwairis, Abu Dhuhur, Nayrab and even the international airport undefended of Aleppo, which has never fallen into the hands of insurgents since the start of the war more than 13 years ago. The Kurdish forces, an expression of the local wing of the PKK and which have long maintained a stronghold in Aleppo, initially attempted to take advantage of the government’s withdrawal and were first to take control of the city’s international airport. Only in the afternoon, after bitter negotiations with pro-Turkish forces, did the airport pass into the hands of the jihadists led by Ankara. These continued south, entering the entire Idlib region without firing a shot, and penetrating, for the first time in almost a decade, the central Hama region. Here, Russian forces withdrew from the military airport and key base at Sqeilibye on the Orontes River. And while news was arriving from Aleppo of the killing, in an air raid attributed to government or Russian aviation, of at least 20 people, including two minors, the jihadist offensive reached the outskirts of Homs, 100 kilometers north of the capital. The news gave strength to the never-dormant political aspirations of the rebel factions in southern Syria, who attacked government positions in Daraa and Suwayda, on the border with Jordan.
A coup against Assad?
And in the evening there were rumors – unconfirmed – of clashes in the center of Damascus between rival government factions, led respectively by pro-Iranian and other pro-Russian elements. The government news agency SANA has stopped sending news, and numerous websites of media and government institutions are blocked. All clues that lead to a scenario that was unthinkable until a few hours ago but which many are now envisaging: a coup against Bashar al Assad, who according to some media has fled to Moscow for days, according to others holed up in a bunker in the presidential palace in Damascus. In the evening, a laconic statement arrived from the Raìs, who assured in a phone call with his Emirati counterpart that Syria “will defeat the terrorists”. In this climate, the Iranian Foreign Minister, Abbas Araghchi, is expected in the Syrian capital.