The ECB effect is being felt. Mortgage interest rates fell well below 4% in September and hit their lowest levels since the end of 2022. The policy of repeated cuts in the cost of money announced and carried out by the European Central Bank in 2024 pushed the APR on loans granted to families for the purchase of homes to 3% in September, even before the most recent reduction last October. 82%, a marked decrease compared to 4.10% in August. Except for the brief dip to 3.94% recorded in July, the rate has not fallen below the 4% threshold since January 2023, when – in an upward trend at the time – it reached 3.95%. The interest requested in September this year therefore represents the minimum since 3.36% in December two years ago.
The impact of the decline is calculated consumers who applaud the decline and hope for another rate cut by the end of the yearas also implied on several occasions by various members of the Eurotower. According to Codacons, in ten months the overall decrease in mortgage rates was 1.1 points, going from the record of 4.92% in November 2023 to 3.82% in September. In absolute terms, assuming a loan of 125 thousand euros over 25 years, this is a saving of approximately 77.5 euros on the monthly instalment, equal to 930 euros less in a year. For the National Consumer Union, however, considering the amount and average duration of a mortgage, the reduction in September rates means that the installment for those who have now taken out a variable rate mortgage drops compared to a month ago. of 20 euros per month, equal to an annual saving of 240 euros. And the descent may not be over. Not only because mortgages have yet to incorporate the rate cut decided by Frankfurt in October, but also because a new anti-recessionary move by central bankers is expected in December.
The inflation specter archived, the fear is now all about a stagnation of the European economy in the last part of the year. For this reason, expectations are oriented towards a new cut, the fourth, which would bring deposit rates to 3%. The governor of the Bank of Italy, Fabio Panetta, also recently indicated the way, calling attention to the “weakness of the real economy” and the risk of inflation falling below the target at Savings Day. of 2%. The data on mortgages arrive while on the government bond front the interest in Italian debt is confirmed, as highlighted several times by the Minister of Economy Giancarlo Giorgetti. The Treasury has in fact placed 9 billion Bot at auction today a year: the first tranche of 7.5 billion expiring in November 2025 and the third tranche expiring next January, demand exceeded supply and the BOTs for November recorded rates falling to 2.695%.