Saudi leader Muhammad ben Salman (Mbs) finds himself at the center of the vortex that opened after the killing of Ali Khamenei, while the new round of war extends from the Mediterranean to the Gulf, right in Riyadh’s backyard. With the Arab capitals allied to Washington under pressure, the crown prince is called upon to give direction to the response to Tehran, between containment of the escalation and political management of the vulnerability of the Iranian power system.
For the second consecutive day, Iranian attacks hit targets in Saudi Arabia, Oman – a country that has long been a mediator between Washington and Tehran and has so far been spared – and in the other four states of the Gulf Cooperation Council. The ministers of the six countries met to seek a common line, aware that the center of gravity of decisions remains in Riyadh and in Mbs’ choices. The summoning of the Iranian ambassador to Riyadh in the morning immediately gave a signal of political management of the crisis: Saudi Deputy Foreign Minister Walid al-Khereiji had denounced “flagrant aggressions” and violations of Saudi sovereignty, reiterating that the kingdom will adopt all necessary measures to defend its territory. At the same time, Riyadh has thus clarified that it wants to maintain a formal diplomatic channel with Tehran even in the midst of tensions, presiding over the negotiation space while strengthening its defenses. Because Saudi management develops on multiple levels: the crown prince spoke with American President Donald Trump and with a series of regional leaders, from Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan to Syrian leader Ahmad Sharaa, from the Sultan of Oman Haytham ben Tariq to the Lebanese president Joseph Aoun, up to the Sudanese general Abdel Fattah Burhan.
Contacts and diplomacy
The sequence of contacts outlines a political direction that aims to coordinate the Gulf’s posture and consolidate Riyadh as the center of gravity of the regional response, avoiding fragmentation and maintaining a margin of autonomous initiative with respect to the dynamics between the United States and Israel. The United Arab Emirates, also hit by Iranian attacks, raised their tone. “We will leave no stone unturned to defend ourselves,” said Minister Rim al-Hashimi. And in the evening the ambassador to Iran was withdrawn and the Emirati diplomatic headquarters in Tehran closed. At the same time, however, a call for dialogue came from Abu Dhabi, with diplomatic advisor Anwar Gargash underlining the need to quickly end the conflict phase. The ball is back in Riyadh and for Mbs the strategic issue is twofold: guaranteeing the reopening and full security of the Strait of Hormuz in the shortest possible time, moving away the winds of war that threaten energy routes and commercial traffic, and capitalizing on the results of this new round of confrontation, consolidating the Saudi position as an indispensable interlocutor for any stabilization. The stability of energy markets and shipping routes is an immediate priority. Any prolonged uncertainty over Hormuz translates into price volatility, investment pressure and risks to the kingdom’s economic transformation agenda, at a time when Riyadh aspires to be a regional financial and logistics hub. In parallel, the crisis offers Riyadh the opportunity to strengthen its regional influence. An Iran under pressure expands Saudi room for maneuver in the Iraqi, Yemeni and Mediterranean dossiers, strengthens the centrality of the kingdom in international diplomatic tables and redefines the internal balance in the Gulf around the leadership of the crown prince.