For the first time in over half a century the world is without binding limits on the strategic nuclear arsenals of the USA and Russia, which together possess approximately 85% of the world’s atomic warheads.
USA and Russia close to agreement
The New Start, the last treaty in force on the matter between the two countries, formally expired on February 5 and an extension is no longer technically possible. With the risk of a new arms race, as also warned by the UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres. Washington and Moscow, according to Axios, are however close to an informal agreement to respect the New Start beyond its expiry, for at least six months during which to negotiate a new treaty. But the plan has yet to receive the approval of both presidents and in any case it would be an agreement “based on a handshake”, therefore not legally binding. Meanwhile, Beijing, repeatedly called into question by the US, excludes participating in discussions on nuclear weapons at this stage.
Trump wants to modernize the treaty
For US President Donald Trump, “instead of extending – he writes in Truth – the ‘New Start’ treaty (a poorly negotiated agreement by the United States which, among other things, is seriously violated), we should instruct our nuclear experts to develop a new, improved and modernized treaty that can last long into the future”.
Negotiations in Abu Dhabi
The negotiations took place over the last 24 hours in Abu Dhabi, where Donald Trump’s envoys, Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, negotiated on the New Start with Russian officials on the sidelines of the talks on the war in Ukraine, during which Vladimir Putin repeatedly raised the threat of a nuclear attack. The talks took place without the active participation of State Department officials specializing in arms control. “We have agreed with Russia to operate in good faith and to begin a discussion on ways to upgrade it,” a U.S. official said. Another source added that, in practice, both sides would agree to respect the terms of the agreement for at least six months, during which time a possible new treaty will be negotiated.
In the meantime, perhaps also to avoid any incidents, the United States European Command has announced the resumption of the military dialogue between the US and Russia, suspended in 2021 before the Russian invasion of Ukraine. “Maintaining an inter-military dialogue is an important factor in global stability and peace, which can only be achieved through force, and provides a means to increase transparency and de-escalation,” the US Forces European Command said. The decision was also made following the “productive and constructive progress” in peace talks on Abu Dhabi Ukraine between the Americans and Russians. The Kremlin said it “regretted” the expiry of the treaty and the Russian Foreign Ministry complained that “our proposals were deliberately ignored”, after Putin had proposed a one-year extension. “Winter is coming”, warned former Russian president Dmitri Medvedev by posting a screenshot from the TV series Game of Thrones. But Moscow nevertheless remains “ready for dialogue with the United States if Washington responds in a constructive way”.
The Beijing Arsenal
The main reason for the White House’s reluctance to extend New Start is that the treaty does not bind Beijing, which has a much smaller but rapidly growing arsenal.
As Secretary of State Marco Rubio recalled, “Trump has been clear in the past: to have true arms control in the 21st century, it is impossible to do anything that does not include China.” But a frost came from Beijing’s Foreign Ministry: “China’s nuclear capabilities are on a totally different scale from those of the United States and Russia and therefore it will not participate in negotiations… at this stage.” Some experts actually believe that trilateral control cannot work, given the differences between current arsenals, but that US-China bilateral negotiations are possible in the future. Trump spoke with Chinese President Xi Jinping on Wednesday, although arms control was not mentioned in official reports. However, it could enter the agenda of the tycoon’s visit to China in April.