Rethink international trade, with more bilateral agreements as a defense strategy against tariffs and not “postpone the opportunity”, like Europe and Italy, to take part in the epochal technological innovation and artificial intelligence that has allowed the global economy to grow above expectations in 2025. At the 32nd congress of the Assiom Forex the governor of the Bank of Italy Fabio Panetta dedicates most of his speech, 25 pages, to the transformation of the global economy while asking “not to surrender to the fragmentation” and to the multilateralism that allowed the extraordinary post-war growth. He makes no mention of the ongoing institutional clash in the USA between the Trump administration and the Supreme Court over tariffs. It is too early to yet understand the real consequences. Few, just one page, are the words dedicated to the banks even in front of an audience of financial operators and bankers. No mention of the past or possible extraordinary operations or the extraordinary taxation imposed by the government, the sector has received the recognition of a solidity which also serves for “the stability” of the country.
“Do not abdicate multilateralism. The EU agreements with Mercosur and India are good”
However, the greater ability to select risks acquired by banks must not lead to excessive “caution” in financing deserving and innovative companies. An attitude that was welcomed by the bankers present. The president of Intesa Sanpaolo Gian Maria Gros Pietro noted that the governor “spoke less about banks, which means that banks are not a problem, and indeed they are an important tool for dealing with the situations we are faced with, such as the great importance of technological innovation”. For Abi president Antonio Patuelli, the solidity of the banks benefits the stability of the country while Panetta’s decision to support companies involved in the transformation is “a useful indication”. And innovation and support from the banking sector is in fact the key to ensuring sustainable growth. The increase in GDP in recent years, although appreciable, based on employment growth and low wages, no longer holds up, he warns. This is why our country and Europe must “accelerate” in the diffusion of digital in order to “manage the economic and social implications”. It is no coincidence that the United States, which still has the leadership of AI, has benefited from this and achieved an average GDP growth of 3.2 percent. And precisely “the technological shock has so far attenuated the impact” of the American tariffs which have also hit several countries and primarily the USA and China which has had to reorient the destination of its goods while safeguarding the GDP while having to reduce prices. This adaptation to a more fragmented trading system, if it saved the system, has therefore entailed “costs and efficiency losses for the global economy”. For this reason, the governor asks not to abdicate multilateralism and judges favorably the path taken by the European Union of bilateral agreements such as those recently signed with Mercosur or India. A path that is already a reality. «In Europe, almost half of the trade takes place under preferential agreements” and the share is destined to increase» he notes.